Last Week: 3-3 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 32-37-3 (.444) (-$850) ATS 56-16 (.778) SU
Chalk (Georgia –10.5 @ Tennessee):
The Bulldogs won their 28th consecutive ballgame – their third-straight against a ranked opponent – and somehow Tennessee is still ranked. Baffling.
Bad Beat (Oregon State –2.5 vs. Washington):
Washington did not score in the second half but played opportunistic defense and made plays on offense when they had to. The opportunities to pass the Huskies are dwindling.
“You have to answer for Santino, Carlo.”
Let’s go back to last Summer:
“Candidly, we were able to get Texas and Oklahoma out of here early. That was a big deal for us and I think all of you. And Coach [McGuire], I’m not going to put any pressure on you, but I’m gonna be in Austin for Thanksgiving, okay? And you’d better take care of business like you did right here in Lubbock last year.”
That was the class – or lack thereof – exhibited by league commissioner Brett Yormark earlier this year when speaking to a crowd of Texas Tech supporters.
Yormark is a carnival barker by trade – he came to the Big 12 after previous stops with NASCAR, the NBA and Jay-Z's Roc Nation. He’s been paid to hype up events his entire life.
But a league commissioner has to have more of a professional demeanor like that when talking about a member school.
He said the quiet part out loud – the league office would have liked nothing better than for Texas and Oklahoma to fall flat on their face on their way out the door to the SEC. That didn’t happen.
Sucks to lose that one, Brett.
He wasn’t the only one running his mouth.
The coach that Yormark refers to in that speech is Joey McGuire of the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who hasn’t quit running his mouth since the Texas Tech student section rushed the field following the Red Raiders’ win over Texas last month.
In the locker room after the game (and make no mistake, locker rooms are full of gusto and bravado, but most are smart enough to not say anything derogatory in front of the cameras:
“I told you they were going to break and they did...the country is going to find out right now – everything runs through Lubbock.”
The Red Raiders promptly lost four out of five games after that rip-roaring speech.
McGuire wasn’t done.
At the same event as Brett Yormark’s remarks:
“These so-called bluebloods (referring to Texas and Oklahoma)...and I really question that. One of them is good at Olympic sports”
Later in the Summer:
“If you ask any of our kids, they’ll tell you this: “We’ll win the Big 12 before Texas leaves the Big 12. So obviously, our plan is to win it this year.”
This was before Texas Tech went to <checks notes> Wyoming and lost.
But hey, Wyoming wasn’t a conference game, they can still win the Big 12...they lost their first conference game of the year and three of their first five.
For far too long, the Texas brand (and the Oklahoma brand) carried this conference. Entire tourism budgets were built around those two coming to your city.
Weight rooms were built on the television money that those two brought in.
Fancy locker rooms and stadium expansions and stadium renovations and indoor practice bubbles were built because of the money that Texas and Oklahoma brought into this conference.
And yet, the animosity grew and grew and grew.
No one is asking those schools or those commissioners to kiss the ring – but what Yormark did and McGuire has done and that fat little offensive lineman whose jersey number adds up to the amount of rushing yards Iowa State had last week did the week prior...
Is just disrespectful.
Which is all fun and games when Texas is down.
But like Iowa State found out last week, Texas is far from down. They invited a street fight last week and Texas went into Ames and kicked their ass up and down the pavement.
Barzini’s dead. So is Philip Tattaglia. Moe Greene. Stracci. Cuneo.
All family business is settled.
And now it is time to answer for Santino, Carlo.
Oregon State @ Oregon –13.5 (Friday):
Oregon State has won two of three in this series, but both of those were in Corvallis – they haven’t won in Eugene since 2007 and haven’t had a one-score game there since 2013.
Bo Nix had six touchdown passes (to only five incompletions) in the first half against Arizona State last week as Oregon really pumped up the Heisman campaign. The Ducks have now won five in a row since that loss to Washington in mid-October. The average margin of victory in those victories is 27 points.
It's been a frustrating year for Oregon State as they have been in every game but have three close losses to Washington State, Washington and Arizona. D.J. Uiagalelei once again struggled in a big game last week against the Huskies, and now has the biggest game of the year for the Beavers. Good luck with that.
Oregon 34 Oregon State 24
Washington State @ Washington –16.5:
Washington State did win the most recent game in Seattle between these two – by a score of 40-13 – but have lost 11-of-13 overall against the Huskies.
The Cougars are looking to be bowl eligible for the 9th time in 11 seasons. Earlier in the year it looked like a certainty they would have six wins but their 56-14 win over Colorado last week ended a six-game losing streak for them. Quarterback Cameron Ward is their whole offense – I can’t see Washington getting this far only to lose to a one-man team at home.
Washington 45 Washington State 24
TCU @ Oklahoma –10.5 (Friday):
If you remember, TCU thrashed the Sooners 55-24 in Fort Worth last year – it was the first indication that the Frogs were to be noticed but also the first sign of something foul in Norman.
Fourteen months later, TCU has fallen back to Earth and Oklahoma – well we’re not sure what they are.
TCU’s Josh Hoover has eclipsed 300-yards four times in five starts and passed 400 yards twice, now he’ll face an Oklahoma defense that has struggled much of the last half of the season. BYU had only rushed for as many as 150 yards against one opponent this year but ran for 217 against the Sooners – the Horned Frogs will be the most dynamic offense they have seen since Texas.
One thing to watch here will be who will start at quarterback for the Sooners – Dillon Gabriel left last week’s game with an “upper body” injury – if he can’t go, it will be freshman Jackson Arnold, who has only seen limited action thus far this season.
Oklahoma 31 TCU 28
Florida State –6.5 @ Florida:
First, it was terrible what happened to Jordan Travis last week. Travis grew up idolizing Jameis Winston and wanted nothing more to bring Florida State back to prominence and win a title but went through all sorts of adversity in Tallahassee from fans wanting him replaced to injuries to three straight losing seasons – and tragedy befell him just as he was realizing his dream. It is impossible to quantify what he meant to that program.
In his stead it will be fourth-year junior Tate Rodemaker making the start. He threw for 217 yards and two touchdowns against North Alabama last week, but only had 550 yards, 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in 21 appearances before Saturday. The FSU offensive line has been suspect (again) and the running game isn’t dynamic enough to take games over. The Seminoles will need a defense that has been inconsistent to be consistently good these next two games to make the playoff.
On the other side, the Florida Gators have lost four in a row, giving up an average of 42 points per game in that span. To make matters worse, they lost starting quarterback Graham Mertz to a collarbone injury last week, so it will be redshirt freshman Max Brown getting the start here. The former three-star recruit from Tulsa came into the ballgame last week and looked decent, completing 4-of-5 passes for 56 yards and rushing 7 times for 42 yards.
The Gators had their third-straight losing season in the SEC, something they hadn’t accomplished since the 1940’s. This would be quite the treat for Florida fans, I just don’t know if they have enough.
Florida State 28 Florida 24
Ohio State @ Michigan –3.5:
For the second year in a row, both teams are 11-0. Michigan’s problems with Ohio State were well known until the last two years where they blew the doors off Ohio State...was it a turning point in the series or did Michigan...have some help?
The Wolverines have to be a bit concerned with the play of J.J. McCarthy, who has had two subpar games in a row with Jim Harbaugh out. McCarthy only completed 12-of-23 passes against Maryland with a red zone interception and a few other passes that could have been picked as well. It doesn’t help that star wide receiver Roman Wilson left last week’s contest and his availability is unclear. It is a situation to monitor.
For the first time this season Michigan played a Top-50 passing offense last week against Maryland – the result was that Taulia Tagovailoa threw for 247 yards and the Terps scored 24 points – the Wolverines hadn’t given up more than 15 in any one game this year.
The Buckeyes welcomed back TreVeyon Henderson from injury a few games back and he shot some adrenaline into their offense – he had 146 yards last week against Minnesota for his third 100-yard game in four games. The concern for the Buckeyes is that their offensive line struggled for long stretches of that Penn State game – what will they do against a much more formidable Michigan front?
Michigan 28 Ohio State 20
Texas Tech @ Texas –12.5:
Last year’s Texas Tech victory in Lubbock was their first in five tries against Texas – they hadn’t won against Texas since 2017 in Austin. In fact, they won two straight here, because they also won in 2015. None of that matters much now, of course.
The Red Raiders started the season 3-5 with that well publicized loss to Wyoming but won their third in a row last week to become bowl eligible. One of those victories was on the road, which is noteworthy because Joey McGuire is 3-7 in his tenure at Tech on the road.
Behren Morton, a sophomore from Eastland, Texas will get the start for the Red Raiders. Morton carries the distinction of the highest-rated quarterback recruit ever for Texas Tech but much like Quinn Ewers he is nursing an AC strain injury from earlier in the year. Despite that he’s thrown for 1,400 yards with 12 touchdowns to 4 interceptions and is 5-0 as a starter.
These aren’t the run and gun Red Raiders that we’re used to, in fact they are around middle of the pack in rushing attempts in the conference. That’s because they have Tahj Brooks running the football for him, who was two yards shy against Kansas State from rushing for 100-yards in 9 straight games. According to Pro Football Focus he leads the nation (by far) in causing missed tackles. He’s the real deal.
The Tech offense is better in Lubbock than they are on the road, however, as they are averaging 5.4 yards per play (66th in the country) on the season but only 4.7 on the road, which would rank 110th in the country if extended out over an entire season.
Defensively the Red Raiders are...not bad. In fact, compared to some Tech defenses of the recent past they are the Georgia Bulldogs, as they rank 56th in the country at 5.4 yards per play, but rank 92nd in the country in defensive red-zone percentage. They’re improved – but not better than what the Horns saw last Saturday night.
The Red Raiders have a six-game winning streak in November extending back to last year...that ends here. It might be close for a while, and Brooks might even find some running lanes like Emari Bailey did, but the Horns’ talent wins out.
Our Olympic sports will kick your ass this year, too.
Texas 38 Texas Tech 23
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Big 12 Championship game tickets.
Note: I would like to take a moment to thank each and every one of you for reading this column every week. It is a saturated landscape out there, and I am glad that you carve out a sliver of time to read this dumb column. Please feel free to share it and distribute it. It would be an honor to see a column attributed to Bum Phillips one day. That’s a joke for a select few.
I’ve always found Tech to be annoying. Not in an Aggie kind of way, because they’re not constantly in your ear, chirping about how relevant they are (news flash: if they were relevant, they wouldn’t need to tell you).
No, Tech is like your red neck cousin who shows up every Thanksgiving in a leisure suit, drinks all of your beer, belches at the table and generally irritates the heck out of everyone, reminding you in the process why you try not to think about him the other 364 days of the year.
Yes, Tech is the Cousin Eddie of college sports.
In a break from the status quo ante, Brett and Joey have combined to make this tilt against the Sand Aggies special. It’s not just the chance to kick Tech’s head in one last time; it’s also an opportunity to humble two blowhards who have less class combined than Sark has in his little finger.
Bring the pain on Friday, Longhorns. Hook ‘em!