Last Week: 3-3 ATS 6-0 SU
For the Year: 33-36-3 (.458) (-$660) ATS 48-24 (.667) SU
Chalk (USC –2.5 @ UCLA): Caleb Williams’s 502 total yards were the most in this series history as USC came away with the victory. Williams now has more than 2,000 total yards and 23 touchdowns in just his last five games. The world is his stage this Saturday night, he might just win the Heisman on it.
Bad Beat (TCU -2.5 vs. Baylor):
Max Duggan 377 total yards; The Frogs were without Kendre Miller, Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis by the end of the game but Duggan still took them down the field and scored; a win over ISU next week makes them the first Big 12 team to go undefeated in league play since 2016;
As many as 30 Longhorns will play their final game at Darrell K. Royal Texas-Memorial Stadium this Friday.
Anyone who dons the burnt orange and white on Saturdays or gets up at 5 AM during the week to practice is a special soul who should be celebrated.
But there are two that in my mind are extra special:
Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson.
Robinson will leave the 40 Acres (and yes, prepare yourself that he is leaving despite another year of eligibility, in fact this could be the final time he wears this uniform) ranking in the Top-4 of Longhorn running backs as far as accomplishments on the field.
But it is his humbleness and all-around good nature that makes him special.
As humble as you can be while driving a Lamborghini around town, anyway.
In the day and age of college free agency, there were no rumbles of Bijan transferring elsewhere this past off-season, coming off a 5-7 season that included a major injury and entering into a so-called “contract year”.
“I’ll be back next year,” he told a gaggle of reporters last November, as understated as usual.
Even this season, as promise turns into bitterness, that bitterness about another potential loss season didn’t invade the mind of Robinson.
“Well, first off, I just want to give honor to God for getting us out of the game healthy. Without him, none of this would be possible. But, back to your question, it’s frustrating,” he said after the loss to TCU. “For the offense, we just couldn't get the run game going and couldn’t find any creases or anything. But, for us, we need to understand that we got to look forward. That's all we can do is just look forward to getting back to practice and being able to work hard again. This one does hurt. I can't take it back.”
From his charitable work to his representation of a student athlete to his work ethic on the practice field to his press scrum acumen, you couldn’t find a better steward for the university.
Although you might not even have to leave the position room to find another candidate.
Roschon Johnson was recruited to the University of Texas as a 4-star dual-threat quarterback, ranked sixth in his recruiting class in that category behind guys like Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels, Sam Howell and Max Duggan.
Johnson never threw a pass for the Longhorns as he was asked to move to running back due to injuries at the position. Sam Ehlinger praised him publicly for his positive attitude and work ethic (what a huge compliment coming from him). It cost him a redshirt year, but he never looked back.
He continued to contribute knowing that he would never be the starter unless it was an injury situation, which culminated in the Thanksgiving weekend game against Kansas State last season, when Roschon literally and figuratively put the team on his back and willed them to victory.
A program that admittedly lacked direction on the player side last season and lacked full buy-in had its leader.
"I owe a lot to him. I owe a lot to our leadership committee and these seniors. But Ro - there have been a couple very significant moments that - you know, somebody needed to stand up,” Steve Sarkisian said this week.
This quote is long but important.
“My voice can only go so far until it comes from a peer. He took the initiative and did that. Very eloquent in his messaging to the team but in a way that I felt like the players heard it and continue to hear it when he speaks. I think that when you talk about what is a Texas Longhorn football player, in my mind I think of Roschon Johnson because he is a selfless player. He is not the star or starting running back for The University of Texas, but yet that doesn't ever get in the way of his work ethic, that does not ever get in the way of his approach, it does not ever get in the way of his want to and want to do well for his team and want to win.” “
“And he could probably be starting at a bunch of other schools. But yet what does he do? He maximizes his opportunities every time he gets it, he doesn't count his reps, he makes his reps count. He starts on four special teams; he runs down on kickoff and makes tackles and handles our punt team. He does all of the little things the right way. Every time I meet with a young player, I always reference, 'How can you be more like him?' That's what your goal should be because that guy does it the right way and he's got a bright, bright future on the football field, but he's got probably a brighter future off the football field because of who he is as a person.”
I could sit here all night trying to think of something and not be able to top that.
I'm of the belief that Texas will be fine on the field next season as far as the running back position goes. We’ve all seen the talent of Jonathan Brooks and Jaydon Blue and there is more help on the way.
But one of the biggest questions of the off-season this year will be who replaces that.
Thank you Bijan, and thank you, Roschon.
And thank you for taking the time to read this column, it is much appreciated. I love doing it and would write it each and every week even if the only person who read it was my mom (she has a nasty gambling habit she needs to feed), but the feedback and the reaction that I get from each and every one of you makes it that much more worthwhile.
Thank you to the moderators at Inside Texas who allow me to post this every week.
Thank you to my tailgate buddies and friends who make every season enjoyable, whether there are 10 wins or 5.
And thank you to my son Jackson. He’s 10-years old and getting more and more into the game this season (you should have heard him giving the ref the business after the targeting call against Demarvion Overshown in the UTSA game). I’m sorry for the heartache that is sure to follow way more seasons than not, but I guarantee you this sport is the best in the world, and when that magical season finally happens, it is all worth it.
LSU –9.5 @ Texas A&M:
If LSU wins out you have to think they are in the playoff – this is the easy one, an A&M team that gave up four weeks ago – but next week versus Georgia in Atlanta? Good luck with that.
The Aggies broke their six-game winning streak last week with their “win” over UMass, yet the Aggies managed to turn the ball over four times and only converted 2-of-10 third downs.
Jayden Daniels has rushed for at least 95 yards in three of his last four – he now faces an Aggie defense that is 110th in the country in opponent’s rushing yards per attempt (4.8).
LSU hasn’t won in College Station since 2016 – that changes here.
LSU 31 Texas A&M 17
Notre Dame @ USC –5.5:
Notre Dame has dominated this annual series of late, winning the last four in a row, but due to COVID only one of those was in Los Angeles.
The Fighting Irish started the season ranked in the Top-10 but then lost to G5 Marshall and 3-8 Stanford at home, but have won five straight since then including a three-touchdown margin of victory over Clemson to give them their only loss of the season.
This is a clash in styles as Notre Dame prides themselves on defense (they held high powered Ohio State and North Carolina to less than 400 total yards), while the Trojans are all offense (they have surpassed 500 yards in five straight games).
The Trojans already know they are playing in the Pac-12 Championship game next Friday, but if they win out they likely have a spot in the College Football Playoff. There were concerns about that offense when leading rusher Travis Dye went out with a knee injury a couple of weeks ago, but Austin Jones rushed for 120 yards and two touchdowns against UCLA. He also added 57 yards through the air.
USC is not impressive on defense but they get turnovers, they are now a ridiculous plus-20 on the season. They should hold on to the victory here.
USC 34 Notre Dame 24
Michigan @ Ohio State –7.5:
For the first time since 2006, these teams will meet with both undefeated. Michigan got the can’t beat Ohio State monkey off their back last season (their first win in 9 tries), but now they face another streak – they have not won at the Horseshoe since 2000.
Both teams face question marks at running back – Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson returned last week but only managed 11 carries before ending up back in a boot, while leading rusher Miyan Williams missed last week completely with an injury. But of course, this is Ohio State so they just plug and play – freshman Dallan Hayden rushed for 146 yards and three touchdowns last week. Meanwhile, Heisman candidate Blake Corum was picked by yours truly in PrizePicks to pick up more than 60 yards rushing in the second half last week – and promptly injured his knee and managed only one carry in the second half.
It did not go for 61 yards.
Michigan’s offense is 5th in points per play in the country. Ohio State’s defense is 10th in the same metric. Ohio State’s offense is 1st. Michigan’s defense is 1st. Ohio State’s offense is 1st in yards per play. Michigan’s defense is 1st in the same metric.
My one issue in this game – while C.J. Stroud hasn’t been as good this year as he was last year (1,400 less yards, completion percentage down 5 percentage points), can J.J. McCarthy lead Michigan back if they fall behind by a couple of scores, or if Corum can’t give it a go? He has only thrown two interceptions this season but has thrown more than 30 passes only twice this season, only averages 7.9 yards per attempt and didn’t go for more than 170 yards in some of Michigan’s biggest games, against Michigan State, Penn State or Iowa.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba only has five receptions this season, but Marvin Harrison Jr. And Emeka Egbuka have combined for 122 receptions and nearly 2,000 yards and 19 touchdowns – they make the difference in this one.
Ohio State 27 Michigan 21
Oklahoma –2 @ Texas Tech:
That was one weird Bedlam game last week – the Sooners jumped out 28-0 in the first quarter but didn’t score the rest of the game but still won due to Spencer Sanders throwing four interceptions.
The Red Raiders seem to have settled on Tyler Shough for now as starting quarterback with Donovan Smith making an appearance in some sort of 18-Wheeler package. Shough has thrown for 387 yards with two interceptions and probably more important zero interceptions the last two games.
While I thought Joey McGuire’s proclamation that the Big 12 goes through Lubbock was preposterous, I must give credit to the Red Raiders for going into Ames last week and becoming bowl eligible. I thought they might be the worst team in the Big 12 this year, but they are 5-1 at home this season and have a great chance to get a seventh victory this week.
They won’t, because I think Oklahoma is a more complete team and they haven’t defeated Oklahoma since 2011 (OU hasn’t scored less than 49 points against Tech since 2014, and haven’t scored less than 38 since 2009), but it sure would be great if they could.
Oklahoma 38 Texas Tech 31
Kansas @ Kansas State -12:
Only one victory stands between Kansas State and the their first Big 12 Championship game since 2003. They’ll try to do so against the Kansas Jayhawks, who haven’t defeated Kansas State since 2008, haven’t won in Manhattan since 2007 and has only defeated the Wildcats four times since 1993.
That’s a lot.
Kansas has lost five of six since getting out to a 5-0 start, giving up 35 points or more in each of those losses, and allowing 50+ twice. Jalon Daniels looked rusty against Texas last week, he’ll have to be the Jalon Daniels of the first five weeks in order to pull off the upset.
Kansas State’s defense has been mostly solid on the season but did give up 31 points to an anemic West Virginia offense (although there was one pick six mixed in there) last week. Were it not for eight Mountaineer penalties and two Mountaineer interceptions it might have been a different game – Kansas State yielded 7.3 yards per carry to West Virginia running backs last week after giving up a boatload of yards against Texas on the ground.
It was big plays that killed West Virginia’s chances last week – just like it did Oklahoma State against the Wildcats – will Kansas be able to contain those?
Probably not...but we’ll be watching anyhow.
Kansas State 37 Kansas 31
Baylor @ Texas –8.5:
It is hard to believe another regular season is over but here we are, with Texas playing for a chance at the conference title in the final game for the first time since 2018.
Baylor is trying to avoid what would be their third consecutive loss – and more importantly trying not to fall to 6-6 one year removed from a conference title. The Bears started conference play 1-2 before winning three straight and seemingly righting the ship, only for the wheels to fall off two weeks ago with an inexplicable 28-point loss to Kansas State in Waco.
The Bears go as their run defense goes – they are 2-4 this season when allowing more than 3 yards per carry. Only Alabama and TCU have managed to hold the Horns to fewer to that in a game this season.
If you are reading this article, I don’t have to tell you about Bijan Robinson but he now ranks second in the country in yards from scrimmage with 1,715, about 80 yards behind Illinois’s Chase Brown and has scored 18 total touchdowns, which is also second best amongst FBS backs – could another strong performance at least garner him an invite for the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York?
The Bears have a talented but young defensive backfield – Quinn Ewers should be able to find enough passing lanes to keep the defense honest.
The Baylor offense doesn’t have one player that scares you, nor do they have any particular facet that intimidates you, but they are balanced and don’t make too many mistakes that lose them ballgames.
They rushed for 232 yards against TCU, 204 more than Texas did, and in all had 501 yards against a TCU defense that a week ago everyone was praising for having figured it out. Blake Shapen plays more of a bus driver role as he’s only throwing for 7.8 yards per attempt this season with a paltry 14 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. No, the Bears go as their rushing game goes, as the triumvirate of Richard Reese, Craig Williams and Qualan Jones has served them well this season, rushing for a total of 1,800 yards and 25 touchdowns.
The one thing to watch with Baylor’s offense – they love to go for it on fourth down. They are second in the country in fourth down conversions per game behind...Texas Tech, and third in the country in fourth down attempts, behind Texas Tech and Navy. They have attempted only 9 field goals all year!
Baylor hasn’t won in Austin since 2014, and this is one of their weakest squads since that time period. The Longhorns get their 80th win in the series.
Texas 31 Baylor 20
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Kansas good luck charms.
And thank you for making it to the end of this column. You are the true ones!