The Week That Will Be: Red River Shutout
Can the Longhorns keep the Sooners from scoring two years in a row?
Last Week: 2-4 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 12-17-1 (.400) (-$630) ATS 22-8 (.733) SU
Chalk (Notre Dame –5.5 @ Duke):
This game was dreadful until a 4th and 16-yard run by Sam Hartman followed by a 30-yard touchdown run by Austin Estime – the Domers led by 5...and decided to go for two and go it, cover secured. No worries at all. Notre Dame has 5-0 Louisville this week and then USC.
Bad Beat (LSU –2.5 @ Ole Miss):
LSU’s College Football Playoff chances are DONE before October 1 as Ole Miss rolled up 711 yards of offense. Jayden Daniels had 515 total yards and five touchdowns in the loss.
Brent Venables before last year’s Texas/Oklahoma matchup:
"Hopefully we're not more excited to play this one than somebody else," Venables said. "We shouldn't prepare for this game any different we do any other game. And if we are, if I allow that, then I'm not doing a good job of leading. We shouldn't do extra this week or be more committed this week. We should be habitual in how we get ready to play."
Mack Brown famously treated this game just like the others, which is why he had a 7-9 record against Oklahoma and gave up 55 points or more four times in those 16 matchups. Bob Stoops would have Oklahoma frothing at the mouth at kickoff – Mack Brown shielded his players and even kept some of his best talent out of the game altogether. And Texas got smacked in the mouth more often than not.
Contrast Venables’ comments to what Steve Sarkisian said before last year’s game:
"What an awesome opportunity to play in a fantastic game," Sarkisian said during Thursday's media availability. "This ball game obviously means so much to so many people. It's a tremendous atmosphere not only for Texas and Oklahoma, but I think for all of college football. Extremely unique setting. One in which that, when you're in our profession, you wanna make sure you take advantage of these opportunities and enjoy the experience."
Embrace the hate. Everybody hates Texas. Sark gets it.
I’m not sure Venables does. And he has definitely been around long enough to know better.
This game is Brian Bosworth and Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams and Roy Williams and Rocky Calmus and Bubba Jacques and Stonie Clark and Peter Gardere and Quentin Griffith.
We shouldn’t remember Peter Gardere’s name. We shouldn’t remember Bubba Jacques name. We shouldn’t remember Stonie Clark’s name. It should be on the tip of our tongue, oh who was that guy, oh he was good, oh why can’t I remember his name...
But we do. Because of his game and what they did on this stage.
I can still see the Trapper Keeper with the Sports Illustrated picture of Jacques that I lugged around school for the next seven months.
This is the most important game on the schedule year in and year out and is how coaches from each side are measured.
Sarkisian gets it. Venables does not.
Or perhaps Venables is just protecting himself because he knows he doesn’t have the horses to win this game.
We’ve talked about it before in this space, but let’s reiterate.
This team is the vision that Sarkisian had when he walked in the door.
A game changer at quarterback. A running game that can take control. Wide receivers that are difference makers and that open up the entire field. An offensive line that controls the tempo. A defensive unit that is among the best in the country up front, where it matters.
And one of the best coaching staffs in America.
This team is good, folks. Whatever PTSD you have hanging around from the Mack Brown era or the Charlie Strong era or the Tom Herman era, let it go. Sarkisian is now 11-3 in his last 14 games, with three wins over ranked teams. The best win of any team in the country this season. They’ve beaten everyone by double digits.
And these quotes, from The Athletic this week:
“That is a very impressive roster,” said one longtime SEC coach. “They got linemen like Alabama used to have. Both sides of the ball. They beat the s— out of Alabama. They push everybody around. They did whatever they wanted with Baylor. They’ve got speed outside and their tight end (Ja’Tavion Sanders) is a freak.
“I think Sark has learned his lesson. He’s running the ball. He’s required toughness. He used to be ‘Next play! Next play! Next play! Hurry up!’ He’s learned what it takes. He hired great coaches. Bo Davis is a great defensive line coach. (Kyle Flood) is a great O-line coach. It shows what those guys have done there.”
“Their defense is dominant and their D-line is one of the most impressive groups I’ve ever seen,” said a Big 12 analyst whose team faced Texas this year.
“Sark is the best play caller I’ve ever faced. He hardly had any tendencies going in, and if he did, he broke them during our game. He really keeps you off balance. They have a great chance to make a deep run.”
It’s going to be a fun weekend, folks.
And it’s going to be a fun year.
“Job’s not finished.”
Unleash hell.
Kansas State –10.5 @ Oklahoma State (Friday):
Both of these teams are coming off a bye week. Oklahoma State is hoping for a rebound off two consecutive losses and are hoping this game has the opposite effect that last year’s matchup with these two did, when they were ranked #9 and lost 48-0 to Kansas State and their season went down the drain.
The Cowboys’ road schedule is manageable if they can figure out their offense – the triumvirate they had at quarterback wasn’t working so Mike Gundy decided on a starter – former Texas Tech/Michigan signal caller Alan Bowman. It had been more than 1,000 days since he played a full football game. The rust showed (he completed less than 50% of his passes at 5.8 yards per attempt and tossed two interceptions) but the offense flowed better.
Now they just need to work on the defense that gave up 348 passing yards to the Cylones and 242 yards rushing to South Alabama.
Kansas State 34 Oklahoma State 23
Washington State @ UCLA –3.5:
The Cougars might not know who they are going to play next season but this season they are ranked #13 in the country, standing at 4-0 with two wins over Top-20 opponents. This one is needed as the road schedule is not favorable with trips to Oregon and Washington on tap later in the year.
They are ranked that high mainly due to the play of quarterback Cameron Ward, the transfer from Incarnate Word. He’s completing 75% of his passes at nearly 10 yards per attempt and has yet to throw an interception this season – but he’ll be missing his favorite target wide receiver Lincoln Victor who is likely to miss this one with an injury.
Meanwhile the Bruins are in the midst of a three-game streak against ranked opponents. Their young phenom quarterback Dante Moore is dealing it but the surprise here is their defense, who are ranked 15th in the SP+ rankings and have given up only 37 points in four games (with Moore throwing a pick-six for 7 of those points).
UCLA 31 Washington State 21
Texas Tech @ Baylor –1:
Texas Tech has had their troubles with Baylor – they've won only 1-of-5 against them and haven’t won in Waco since 2017.
Of course, Tech is having trouble with everyone this year, as they finally got their second win of the year last weekend against Houston, yet they needed two special teams scores to make the score look respectable and we’re outgained by 100 yards and only had 161 yards passing.
The Red Raiders did have 239 yards rushing, but that remains to be seen whether it can do it against better opponents, which I’m not sure they get this week either, as Baylor needed the biggest comeback in school history last weekend to avoid starting out 1-4 on the season.
I think in games like this it comes down to who has the better quarterback.
Baylor 31 Texas Tech 28
Kentucky @ Georgia –14.5:
Kentucky hasn’t beaten Georgia since 2009, in fact in the last four games against them they have only scored 16 total points, including last season’s 16-6 loss in Lexington.
But of course, those were championship Georgia teams. We’re not so sure about this version.
Sure, they have still won 22 games in a row, but they had to remember that Brock Bowers was on their roster to defeat an Auburn team that was walloped just a week prior in College Station, and that defense gave up 200 yards rushing in three quarters to that awful Tigers offense (the first time in six years someone ran for 200 yards or more against Georgia).
Their running game is not good, Carson Beck is talented by looks like a first-year quarterback and that defense has to face a Kentucky offense that is averaging 7.2 yards per play (up from 4.8 last season and they have to face Kentucky running back Ray Davis, who ran for 280 yards (the most by an FBS back this year) and three touchdowns against Florida a week ago.
This one has the feel of, much like Alabama/Ole Miss a couple weeks back, “if not now, then when”, but as soon as we say that Georgia comes in and blows the doors off of Kentucky.
But that’s a lot of points.
Georgia 24 Kentucky 17
Alabama –1.5 @ Texas A&M:
Texas A&M still thinks this is a rivalry despite only one win their last ten attempts against the Crimson Tide – two years ago in College Station.
The Aggies are riding high and crowing that this is the culmination of Jimbo Fisher’s hard work (after all they are 2-0 in the SEC for the first time in Jimbo’s tenure) – the trouble is that we’re six years in and there was the matter of that trip to Miami a few weeks back. In all seriousness the Aggie defense is playing well, holding K.J. Jefferson last week to 129 total yards (and showing a total lack of respect to my Prize Picks account) and sacking the quarterback seven times in two straight games.
They’ll face an Alabama offense that seems to be finding itself, even if it is finding itself in 2015 --- the Crimson Tide won 40-17 last week against Mississippi State and only attempted 12 passes in the process. That Alabama defense seems to be finding itself too – they have only allowed 10 points per game and 4.1 yards per play since the Texas loss and have only given up one touchdown through the air in that timespan (last week against Mississippi State, their first against the Tide since Dak Prescott in 2014!!!) and 4.8 yards per attempt.
They’ll face Max Johnson, who started out hot last week but scored more points for Arkansas (6) than his own team (3) in the second half last week.
Add that all together and I see a brutal, low scoring affair on Saturday.
Alabama 20 Texas A&M 13
Oklahoma v. Texas –6.5 (Dallas, TX):
And then there was this one.
For the first time since 2011, both teams will enter the Cotton Bowl undefeated, the one that leaves undefeated will be in the driver’s seat for a spot in the Big 12 Championship game and will control their own destiny for the College Football Playoff.
The Sooners, of course, had their first losing season since 1998 last year. They have turned it around this year, but lose here, in their first real test of 2023, and Sooner fans might start wondering if their start is a mirage and here we go again.
I can help them with that. Yes, it is a mirage.
Oklahoma has “hung half a hundred” on their opponents three times in five tries this year, but have yet to face a dynamic, athletic defense such as they will face Saturday in Dallas. Dillon Gabriel has been able to sit back in a clean pocket and pick apart defenses (he’s only been sacked 4 times this year after being sacked 25 times last season) with a 75% completion percentage and a yards per attempt average approaching 10, but Texas will feature the best pass rush and the best defensive line they have seen all season...and likely will see all season.
The Oklahoma running game is not much to speak of. They don’t have Adrian Peterson or even Eric Gray or Kennedy Brooks back there, instead they feature a triumvirate of backs that don’t have even a 200-yard rusher among them, and none of them are going to hit a home run – their longest run of the season is for 30 yards.
Jonathan Brooks eclipsed all those last Saturday against Kansas.
The thing they do the best is throw the deep ball – keep them in front of you, stop the run with the front four, keep Gabriel moving in an unclean pocket and don’t let it bother of you if he escapes the pocket at times, dare them to move the ball down the entire field instead of getting big shots, because it is likely Gabriel tries to force something or they commit a back-breaking penalty – they rank 98th in the country in penalties.
The Oklahoma defense is better. But it's still not great. Danny Stutsman is their leading tackler with 49 tackles...their next closest defender has 22. Stutsman had 13 tackles in last year’s game, the second leading tackler was the Sooners’ endzone.
Quinn Ewers should have some time, as the Sooners only have 8 sacks on the season, and they have had to utilize the blitz to get there. Those blitzes won’t work against Ewers and Texas...he’s practically begging for that to happen.
I think the blueprint for this one looks a lot like last season – feed Brooks and then hit your receivers and tight ends over the top when they come up to stop him. Avoid the turnover because I’m not sure they can drive the length of the field otherwise, see above.
At the end of the day, Texas is more talented, and perhaps more importantly, they are deeper. I expect a tighter game than last year (that won’t be hard) but this Sooner team is much closer to an 8-win team than they are a conference champion.
Go out and bully them. They’ll fold.
Texas 37 Oklahoma 20
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for celebratory drinks at the Lil’ John concert after the game.
Love it!
This fired me up!! LET'S DO THIS!!!