The Week That Will Be: Miracle on Ice

It won't be a miracle if the Horns win on Friday, no matter what the media want to say.

"This ain't gonna be no surprise," Pollack said. "Friday night, Saturday night, Sunday night, Tuesday night, Monday night—whatever night you play this, Ohio State's the best team in the country. They have been since the playoff started. They've been dominant. Jeremiah Smith has been him... It's the hottest team in Ohio State vs. a Texas team whose defense has been a little more suspect in the postseason, and the offense bailed them out in the last game.. I got 34-21 Ohio State." -- David Pollack

“I like Ohio State in this game, 34-21. Ohio State is favored by 5.5 [points]. I am going with the Buckeyes,” Klatt said. “They’re covering the 5.5, 34-21. Ohio State wins it” -- Joel Klatt

“The Longhorns are likely going to need nearly flawless football from Quinn Ewers to win this game, a dangerous proposition considering his rollercoaster playstyle. The Buckeyes win the Cotton Bowl and advance to their first national title game since 2020 when they lost to Alabama.” -- Pro Football Focus

“I’m taking Ohio State.” -- Greg McElroy

“I’m going to say Ohio State wins the game 35-28.” -- Rece Davis

Yeah, well, I think Texas should still show up and play the game.

There were no cameras or cell phones or recording devices in the locker room the night that the United States hockey team defeated the Soviets 4-3 in the medal round of the 1980 Winter Olympics, but in the movie Miracle, head coach is said to have said this to his young squad full of college players before they faced off with the four-time defending gold medalist USSR:

“Great moments are born from great opportunity. And that’s what you have here, tonight, boys. That’s what you’ve earned here tonight...tonight, we are the greatest hockey team in the world. You were born to be hockey players. You were meant to be here tonight. This is your time. Their time is done.”

Now, I hesitate to even post this because it isn’t going to take a miracle on the level of a bunch of kids beating the best professionals in the sport for Texas to defeat Ohio State.

But you wouldn’t believe that from listening to the media this week.

The Texas Longhorns sit here at 13-2 with a defense that is among a handful of the best by any statistical measure out there. They are a team that went on the road and defeated the national champions quite soundly, to which it wasn’t even a game past the intermission. They are a team that has won 25 games in two years with a quarterback that was around the finish for nearly all of them. They are a team that quite literally was here a year ago. They are a team that was down to their final life last Wednesday and found new life on 4^th and 13, in a play that will go down in Longhorn lore.

No, it won’t take a miracle for Texas to defeat Ohio State.

It just will take the team that we know is there, with the three-year starter at quarterback that we know is there, with the veteran offensive line and a defense that I still say is best in the country until I see otherwise.

And it will take a coaching staff that is building a monster.

We saw it in Tuscaloosa. We saw it in Ann Arbor. We saw it in New Orleans.

And we will see it in Arlington.

The Orange Bowl: Notre Dame –1.5 vs. Penn State

First of all, I must say how cool it is that the four teams left in this tournament are all in the Top-8 of wins all-time. College football is at its finest when its best and brightest are good.

Except Oklahoma. I hope those guys continue to stink.

These two teams have met (only) 19 times in history. They’ve never met when they were both in the Top-10 and this is only the second bowl matchup against these two teams from the same region (look in Texas everything up that way is in the same region).

Similar to last week’s Georgia/Notre Dame matchup, this one might not have many offensive points scored – both of these teams rank in the Top-4 in defensive FEI – you can probably guess the other two teams in that foursome.

Both teams have their offensive issues – despite both Kayton Allen and Nicholas Singleton going over 1,000 yards for the season against Boise State last week, and despite All-World tight end Tyler Warren going down the middle seam for the Nittany Lions, despite Drew Allar being a top-pick whenever he enters the draft and despite a huge offensive line, Penn State struggled in their biggest games this season.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, won a game against Georgia despite only throwing for 90 yards, a feat Texas tried in their first matchup and failed. Riley Leonard was able to rush for 80 yards on the Bulldogs, but I’m not confident he will have the same success against a Penn State defense that shut down Ashton Jeanty last week and only allowed five teams rush for 100 yards all season? Especially if star running back Jeremiyah Love is still injured? He didn’t look great against Georgia and is apparently practicing this week with a huge brace on his knee.

You come here for astute football analysis so here it goes – both teams will need to avoid the turnovers. Penn State has gathered seven turnovers in their two CFP games, while Notre Dame capitalized on two gigantic Georgia turnovers last week.

So, who wins? I think Penn State’s defense is a little looser than Notre Dame’s -- Boise State was only 1-of-4 in the red zone last week, but the fact of the matter is that the Broncos were able to get to the red zone four times.

Neither of these teams are known for their best in the biggest games -- Notre Dame won their first major bowl game in 31 years last week while failings against top opposition is well known – but the Irish are going to play for the national championship.

Notre Dame 24 Penn State 17

The Cotton Bowl: Texas vs. Ohio State -6

These two have not played since Quan Cosby Superman’ed that ho into the end zone in the Fiesta Bowl after the 2008 season – the loser’s next game will be against the winner next August in the Horseshoe in Columbus.

If this game would have been played the first round of the playoffs, the betting line might have been a point or two either way – if you remember in Ohio State’s last game prior to the playoff they lost to 6-5 Michigan (again), scoring only 10 points and rolling up 252 yards in the process.

Everyone wanted Ryan Day fired. Many Ohio State fans still do – regardless of the outcome the rest of the month. Ohio State was the laughing stock of college football, they tried to legislate flag planting at their stadium, Ohio State fans were down so bad half of them sold their tickets to Tennessee fans.

But then they scored 40+ points in two straight playoff games, Will Howard threw for 300 yards plus in both games (the first time in his career he has had back-to-back 300-yard efforts) and Jeremiah Smith had about a million yards, and then all of the sudden Ohio State was made to be this unbeatable juggernaut.

Recency bias at its finest.

But...Ohio State is really good.

Between Michigan and Tennessee, they took that time to almost completely scrap their offense and start over, with increased tempo, more motion, a different run scheme and more play action. Will Howard threw 15+ yards 20% of the time during the season – that number was 28% against Tennessee.

And it worked. Good for them.

But...the problem with that plan is that you are counting on Will Howard (0-4 against Texas in his career as a starter at Kansas State). It’s possible Texas is in his head – he said as much directly after the Rose Bowl, when he mentioned his record against Texas with confetti still falling.

The Rose Bowl was his first game in four tries he didn’t have a turnover. He also threw an interception in close games against Penn State and Nebraska. Pressure him as much as you can with an honest box – because you will need to keep guys in coverage on the back end against Smith, first-round pick in next spring’s NFL draft Emeka Egbuka and former five-star recruit Carnell Tate. That pressure will be easier said than done. Despite being on their third left tackle of the season and the loss of their starting center in November, the Buckeyes haven’t allowed a sack in their first two playoff games.

This is the national semi-final. There are no more UTSAs on the schedule.

If he goes 4/4 on deep balls for touchdowns like he did against Oregon, you tip your cap.

But life is about probabilities.

Defensively the Buckeyes might be even stronger than their offense, ranking first in the country in defensive yards per play allowed, second in red zone scoring percentage, first in sack percentage and only allowed more than 17 points twice this season – both to Oregon.

Now, they didn’t exactly face murderer’s row in the Big 10, but did quite well against who is on their schedule and you won’t get very far if you are hoping their defense is a mirage.

It is evident that Texas cannot depend on anything from Isaiah Bond right now, so Texas will need everything that Matthew Golden can give. But they’ll need more. Gunnar Helm, Ryan Wingo, Tre Wisner, Jaydon Blue, hell Thatcher Milton – whatever works – they will need it in this game.

Texas will need the game of the year from Quinn Ewers. He has done it before, and has been more than enough the last several weeks. We’ll need an outstanding effort from him and we need the offensive line, which has been either extremely good or extremely bad lately, to hit that high water mark as well.

Texas cannot win this game with the offense not playing for a quarter and a half again.

The defense will have to play perhaps their best game of the year – force Will Howard to beat you with his mind, not his first read. The Texas defense has at least one interception in 13 of their 15 games – they'll need to snag one here as well.

Win this one and it will be one to remember for Texas fans.

You were born for this.

Texas 31 Ohio State 27

For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Atlanta....yet again.