The Week That Will Be: Learning to Fly

I remember when Tim Tebow was the most annoying person from Florida

Last Week: 3-3 ATS 5-1 SU 

For the Year: 32-27-1 (.533) ($170) ATS 46-14 (.767) SU 

Chalk (Florida +16.5 vs. Georgia)   

Georgia scored two late touchdowns to put the game away but this was a game in the fourth quarter despite the injury to Florida quarterback D.J. Lagway in the first half. It was Carson Beck’s third consecutive multi-turnover game and fourth in his last five – the Bulldogs still have a trip to Oxford to play Ole Miss and Tennessee left on the schedule. 

Bad Beat (Texas A&M –2.5 @ South Carolina) 

The Aggies fell down 14-0, then took a 20-17 just before half, but the Gamecocks scored the final 27 points of the game. The Aggies allowed 530 total yards to the Gamecocks (including a whopping 12 plays of 15+ yards), who aren’t exactly known for their offensive acumen.  

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This week the first College Football Playoff rankings were released. Every year it drives me insane when people argue on Twitter (never going to call it X) about how Team A is ranked 8^th and Team B is ranked 9^th and it is total BS when there is a whole month still yet to go. 

But I have to write about something this week, so let’s take a look at the playoff race as it shapes up now. First, I’ve said this a time or two, but 12 is too many. Look at those teams in this third category and tell me any one of those deserves to play for a national championship. Second, there should be a Power 4 champion and a Group of Five/Six however many it is now champion – nobody cares about Boise State, unless it is to watch Ashton Jeanty on a Friday night when sane people have gone to bed. 

The Contenders 

I look at this list and I realize that college football does not have any great teams this year – Texas fans can be myopic, but I would guarantee you that there has been serious discussion about each of these teams in their respective fanbases. Oregon (1) struggled out of the gate this season but seemed to find their sea legs. I still don’t know if I am trusting Dillon Gabriel in a game not at Autzen Stadium against another contender, but for now, they deserve the top spot.  

Ohio State (2), Georgia (3) and Texas (5) seem similar to me – flawed but absolutely capable of putting it all together for a month in order to win a championship. I like Texas and Georgia more than Ohio State – for all their faults in the recent past, I would trust Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers much more than Will Howard. 

Can Get There 

These teams will certainly have the opportunity...but can they seize it? Miami (4) has the quarterback playing the best (Cam Ward), but their defense gives up too many big plays and they have yet to face anyone halfway decent this season – passing on Georgia is a lot different than passing on Cal. Indiana (8) is the Cinderella story of this tournament, except the enrollment at the school is about 49k – they just have been so incompetent for so long. The Hoosiers have been playing great football and have great metrics – but the schedule has been weak. We’ll find out more about them when they travel to Columbus later this month. 

What Are We Doing Here 

And this is where we get to where the playoff is too big. Does anyone think Penn State (6) is capable of beating any teams in this tournament, much less three or four? Tennessee (7) reeks of a paper tiger – their defense can be elite but Nico Iamaleava isn’t putting this team on his back for a month. BYU (9) is undefeated...but their best win is against...SMU? If they drop a game between now and the Big 12 title game and then win that, they will be a Top 4 seed. What a joke. 

Notre Dame (10) and Alabama (11) had their chances – in Alabama’s case, they had two chances. You shouldn’t be able to lose to Northern Illinois at home and make any tournament to determine a national champion.  

And Boise State’s (12) best victory is...a close loss to Oregon? Washington State? Why do we feel the need to include a Group of Five/Six/Seven/Eight team in this tournament?  

And those on the outside looking in – first four out right now would be SMU, Texas A&M, LSU and Ole Miss. SMU has looked great – but those other three have had their chances.  

Again, what are we doing here?  

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Michigan @ Indiana –14.5 

I feel like I can’t escape from writing about Michigan in this column despite their terrible effort, no telling what their writers are thinking about this season. 

Michigan is 62-10-3 against Indiana all-time. The Hoosiers wo in 2020 in Bloomington but before that, the last time they defeated Michigan was 1987. Just a year ago in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines won 52-7. 

My how quickly things change. 

The Michigan offense is still stuck in the mud – against Oregon Kalel Mullings only had 8 carries for 16 yards – in fact out of their 7 possessions in the first half, the net total on first down of those drives was 1 yard. Wink Martindale is likely one and done in Ann Arbor as well, as the plan was for the defense to keep up the Michigan way while the offense finds its legs, but Michigan ranks 38^th in defensive yards per play and gave up 30+ points to Texas and Oregon. 

Scoring points has been no issue for Indiana, as the Hoosiers are 9-0 for the first time in school history due to an offense that is first in offensive success rate and net points per drive – but don’t overlook the defense, they rank 6^th in the country in defensive yards per play. 

I see this the same way I saw other Michigan games this year – their offense simply can’t keep up and the defense is nowhere near elite enough to keep them in it. They’ll need to beat Northwestern next week just to be bowl eligible. 

Indiana 38 Michigan 21 

BYU –4 @ Utah 

These bitter rivals whose campuses are just 45 miles apart haven’t met since 2021, when BYU won 26-17 in Provo, their first win in the series since 2009 – the Cougars haven’t won in Salt Lake City since 2006. 

It’s been a struggle for Utah. They’re 5-8 in their last 13 games against FBS opponents, their starting quarterback Cam Rising is out for the season (again) and there are whispers that this will be Kyle Whittingham’s final year, whether it is his choice or not. 

BYU isn’t going to wow you, but yet they are still undefeated and in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 title game. They run an efficient offense, play solid-strong defense and rank third in the country in forcing turnovers – a borderline team’s best friend. 

The Utes will give it an effort but they just don’t have the horses. 

BYU 28 Utah 17 

Colorado –3.5 @ Texas Tech 

Remember when the national media and snarky Twitter said it was time for “an adult” to take over in Boulder after the Buffaloes struggled against North Dakota State in their opener (who have since won 9 straight) and then got walloped in Lincoln? Well with the losses by Iowa State and Kansas State last weekend, the Buffs, who have won 5 of 6, sit in PRIME position for the Big 12 title game (and by extension, the College Football Playoff) as they are in a tie for second in the conference. 

It was Texas Tech who knocked off the Cyclones, in Ames no less. It’s been a roller coaster of a year for the Red Raiders, as they started the year going to overtime with Abilene Christian, looked like garbage against Washington State in Pullman, then reeled off four straight wins before allowing 94 combined points to Baylor and TCU in consecutive losses.  

I’m not liking their chances here. Their pass defense is particularly awful, and while Shedeur Sanders can wilt under pressure (he’s been sacked 25 times this season), the Red Raiders only rank 122^nd in the country in sack percentage. 

Colorado 38 Texas Tech 28 

Alabama –3 @ LSU 

Alabama has dominated this series of late, winning 11 of 13, but of course that was all under the tutelage of Nick Saban.  

It is unknown whether LSU has figured out since the Texas A&M debacle that the quarterback can legally keep the football, but if they haven’t, it won’t be any easier this week with Jalen Milroe coming to town. Milroe might be best served running the football more, as he has already thrown as many interceptions (8) as he had all of last season.  

The Tide as a whole finally got their running game going against Mizzou last time out, as the Tide rushed for 271 yards and 7.3 yards per carry. LSU looked like they turned the corner in that department earlier in the season but couldn’t generate anything against an A&M defense that got destroyed by the South Carolina run game last weekend.  

Honestly who knows how this game goes – if you bet on this one you are a true degenerate entrusting your cash on which of Milroe or Garrett Nussmeier decides to avoid going all YOLO with his pass attempts – but we make picks in this column, so give me the Tide. 

Alabama 33 LSU 27 

Georgia –2.5 @ Ole Miss 

Look, I can give you a bunch of metrics that shows Ole Miss’s offense and defense is peforming at a high level, and I give you some metrics that show that Georgia is not. 

However. 

Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin need to win a game like this before I believe they can win a game like this. 

Georgia 31 Ole Miss 24 

Florida @ Texas –21.5 

Texas and Florida have met only three times in history, with the Longhorns holding a 2-0-1 mark against the Gators. I mean, who can forget those back-to-back shutout victories in 1939 and 1940? And hey, that 1940 game is still more recent that Texas A&M’s last national title. 

Billy Napier is now 15-18 at Florida after the loss to Georgia last weekend, even worse he is 8-13 in the SEC in his time in Gainesville, and even worse than that, he’s 2-13 against ranked opponents in his time there. Ug-lee. 

And now he must navigate the toughest portion of Florida’s schedule without his top two quarterbacks, despite the disinformation that Florida is putting out there about D.J. Lagway’s possible availability for this game. You don’t leave the field on a cart and come back the next week. Now if you are Dywane Wade you leave the court in a wheelchair despite having a shoulder injury only to return in the same game, but that is a different Florida team. 

Aidan Warner will get the start for the Gators. The redshirt freshman who transferred from Yale didn’t completely shit his pants when he replaced Lagway during the Georgia game, but he definitely displayed the skills that got him in the break glass only in the case of emergency role for Florida this season.  

Lagway isn’t the only injury for the Gators this week. Running back Montrell Johnson has missed multiple games with an injury, and wide receiver Eugene Wilson III was declared out for the season this week. Running backs Jacobi Jackson and Jaden Baugh did just fine against the Bulldogs, however, rushing for a combined 138 yards on 29 carries against stacked defenses. 

The Florida defense is faring much better these days after their rough start to the season in losses to Miami and Texas A&M, but Georgia was still able to roll up 455 yards on them last week even with Carson Beck handing out interceptions like Halloween candy. 

This line seems crazy at first glance but I’m not sure how Florida gets much scoring with the personnel they are going to have to roll out there on Saturday. 

Texas 31 Florida 13 

For entertainment purposes only.  Save your money for the outrageous third-party ticket prices at DKR this year.