The Week That Will Be: Hold On to that Feelin'
A lot of people smell an upset -- not so fast my friends.
Last Week: 2-4 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 24-28-2 (.444) (-$660) ATS 40-14 (.741) SU
Chalk (Oregon –6.5 @ Utah):
The Ducks snapped Utah’s 18-game home winning streak in a game that was never really close. The Oregon defense held Utah to 2.8 yards per carry.
Bad Beat (Oklahoma –10 @ Kansas):
The Jayhawks had been 0-99-1 when losing entering the 4th quarter against a Top-10 team. That was also their first win over a Top-10 team at home since 1984 – also against Oklahoma.
The first College Football Playoff rankings are out for the year 2023 and lo and behold for the first time in the poll’s history, the Longhorns are interested, because they now know what is between them and making the playoff for the first time in program history. Let’s take a look at poll, their best win, and their toughest remaining regular season game:
Ohio State
I am glad to see that the playoff values success AND doing it against teams with a pulse. The Buckeyes don’t have the explosive offense they have had the last few years, but this is their best defense in a while. Good enough to beat Michigan? Who knows, but if they do they are in because the Big 10 West won’t give any resistance in the Big 10 Championship game, the last time that division won that game was 2015.
Best Win: @ Notre Dame, Penn State
Toughest Remaining Opponent: @ Michigan (Connor Stallions or no)
Georgia
We’re going to do all of this, and Georgia is just going to win again, aren’t they? They are already getting to the point where they could still lose one and get in, but they do have a tough-ish road left and a first-year starter at quarterback, so we’ll see.
Best Win: Kentucky
Toughest Remaining Opponent: Missouri or @ Tennessee
3. Michigan (if eligible)
I write that in jest, of course, because we all know the NCAA punishes SMU and that’s it. The Wolverines can’t do much about their Big 10 schedule, but they do rank 109th in SP+ strength of schedule. We’re now past Halloween and this is the first time they are appearing in this column. They do have some tough ones coming up, however, we’ll learn more about them then.
Best Win: @ Nebraska (?)
Toughest Remaining Opponent: @ Penn State or Ohio State
Florida State
The Seminoles looked shaky in quite a few of their wins this year, but when you win them all in a major conference, they don’t ask how you won. They might have the easiest path left but you never know, those rivalry games get tricky and they have two of them. Oh, and Mack Brown might finally beat them. What? I’m serious...
Best Win: LSU
Toughest Remaining Opponent: Miami or @ Florida
Washington
The Huskies have by far the toughest path left, every single week will be a battle. They have looked mighty beatable the last two weeks (against Arizona State and Stanford) so they had better step it up. If the Longhorns are looking for an unbeaten to fall, this is the one.
Best Win: Oregon
Toughest Remaining Opponent: @ USC or Utah or @ Oregon State or Washington State
Oregon
That trip to Arizona State could get dicey (the Ducks have lost in their last two trips there) but are the favorites to win the Pac-12 now...then it would be a body of work battle against Texas/Alabama/Oklahoma, etc.
Best Win: @ Utah
Toughest Remaining Opponent: USC
Missouri @ Georgia –15.5:
They haven’t been conference mates for long, but Missouri has only defeated Georgia once – in 2013. In fact, as you can guess, it is usually not very close, either, but Mizzou was up 10 in the fourth quarter last year before the Bulldogs came back to win.
The Tigers are quite the story this year, as they are 7-1 for the first time since 2013 and could easily be undefeated if they hadn’t allowed 14 points in the last three minutes in their matchup with LSU earlier this year. They win in a few ways; they can win through the air or ground but also have only allowed one touchdown in their last 21 defensive possessions.
Then there is Georgia, who has won 25 games in a row and look to be rounding into shape just in time for the stretch run. There was some concern that the Bulldogs might miss Brock Bowers last week but Ladd McConkey was back from injury and hauled in 6 catches for 135 yards and a touchdown. The rich get richer.
Georgia 34 Missouri 17
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss –3:
Ole Miss has won two in a row in this series and five of eight, including last year’s 31-28 win in College Station last year that featured 390 rushing yards from the Rebels, the most the Aggies had given up in 20 years. The post-game featured some pre-and post-game comments from Lane Kiffin about A&M’s recruiting “successes”...Lane loves beating these Aggies.
I’m not sure this year’s A&M team will give up that many rushing yards – they have had success all year defensively against the rush, holding opponents to 2.8 yards per carry.
Ole Miss stands to benefit if LSU can knock off Alabama this week as they defeated the Tigers earlier this year. They have had a lot of success at home – they are 19-2 at home in their last 21 matchups. Last year they were in a similar position – 8-1 and ranked as high as 8th in the country – but they finished 0-4 including a Texas Bowl loss to end up unranked at 8-5.
They’ll at least get a win here.
Ole Miss 31 Texas A&M 24
LSU @ Alabama –3:
LSU’s 32-31 win in Baton Rouge last season was only their second in their last 12 against Alabama, which means they have a one-point win and needed a team that featured Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase to defeat the Crimson Tide in that time period.
It could serve as a de facto semifinal for the SEC Championship game. LSU started the season losing to Florida State, won three in a row and then lost to Ole Miss. A lot of people buried them then, but Jayden Daniels is playing like a Heisman finalist and the Tigers have a chance at the SEC title.
Everyone buried Alabama after the loss to Texas and the subsequent poor showing against South Florida, but they enter this game 7-1 and don’t have a ranked opponent left after this one. Since that Texas loss their defense hasn’t allowed an opponent to score more than 21 points. Offensively Jalen Milroe is ranked second in the country in yards per attempt at 10.6, this despite having to run for his life as he’s been sacked an astounding 30 times this year.
Defense, defense, defense. Alabama has it, while LSU’s defense ranks 106th in the country in defensive yards per play, along with the likes of UTEP, Cal and Rice.
Alabama 31 LSU 24
TCU @ Texas Tech –3 (Thursday):
The Horned Frogs have won 4 in a row in this series, including last season’s 34-24 victory in Fort Worth. Odd note – the Red Raiders haven’t defeated TCU in Lubbock since 2013.
TCU is 4-4 and 8th in the Big 12 a year after appearing in the national championship game, but they are just fighting for bowl eligibility at this point – four games remain, and they have both Texas and Oklahoma on the schedule.
It looks like it will be Josh Hoover at quarterback again for the Horned Frogs. He threw for 439 yards (at only 7.6 ypa) against BYU, but only 187 (at 4.3 ypa) against Kansas State. That’s quite the range.
The Red Raiders are also fighting for bowl eligibility this year after having designs of making a run at the Big 12 title in the pre-season. Behren Morton is expected to be back for Texas Tech, he’s played in five games this year with mixed results (less than 6 yards per attempt) but has an 8-to-2 TD to INT ratio. He’s the highest quarterback signee in program history.
These two teams are so up and down who knows which one will show up on either side. When in doubt, go with the home team.
Texas Tech 38 TCU 33
Oklahoma –6 @ Oklahoma State:
This is the 118th and last (at least for a while) meeting between these two schools. Oklahoma has been Mike Gundy’s kryptonite – he's 3-15 against them all-time.
The Cowboys have been on fire – they had a slow start to the season but now are 6-2 and tied for the league lead at 5-1. If they can get past Oklahoma, only road trips to UCF and Houston and a home game against BYU remain.
Ollie Gordon has been on fire – he's rushed for 721 in his last three ballgames and joined Barry Sanders as the only two players in OSU history to rush for more than 250 yards in consecutive games.
The Sooners rushed for 269 yards and five touchdowns last week and lost – because they gave up 225 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns. Oklahoma’s defense has reverted back to 2022 form the last three games – they're allowing 5.9 yards per game in their last three – last year they allowed 5.6 yards per play.
This should be a good one if Oklahoma State can get past their demons. But I’m a man that respects streaks.
Oklahoma 35 Oklahoma State 28
Kansas State @ Texas –4:
Texas has won six in a row in this series (and the Wildcats haven’t won in Austin since 2011) – but you wouldn’t know it by listening to some Texas fans who still remember the dark days of this matchup.
I get it – the improvement in this series has been more about Texas turning things around than Kansas State, the defending Big 12 champions, falling off their game. The last three wins in this series have been by a combined 14 points.
The Wildcats have won three conference games in a row – the last two by a combined score of 82-6. But those were both at home, against a TCU team facing a quarterback making his second start ever and a Houston team that who knows where their heads were after their close loss to Texas the week prior.
On the road this year, the Wildcats are 1-2 and needed to blindside Texas Tech a bit with Avery Johnson (the freshman from Wichita, not the former Spurs point guard/Mavericks head coach, although that would be funny) to come up with a victory there.
The Kansas State defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown in 9 quarters – but again they faced a freshman making his first road start and a Houston team that who knows where their heads were. You can run on this defense; they are giving up 4.8 yards per carry in Big 12 play. Even TCU and Houston had success running the football, game flow just dictated that they go away from it. They defend the pass better, giving up 6.4 yards per pass attempt (buoyed a lot by those last two games), but that number jumps to 7.6 on the road.
The Wildcats inserted Avery Johnson into the Texas Tech game and he proceeded to rush for five touchdowns. They also have Will Howard, who the Longhorns have seen before, the last time he played here he had a 75-yard touchdown run on the last play of a former five-star safety’s career when he was pulled for his give a damness. They tend to ride the hot hand, you just have to watch the quarterback run, and I know some of you are convinced that Texas never plays those types well, they do over time.
I think for me this game comes down to two things: A.) Can the Longhorns control the quarterback running game (yes, they will) and B.) Can Maalik Murphy make enough plays to keep the defense honest, and can he avoid the big turnover?
Oh, and if you a red-zone worrier, the Wildcats are third in the country in red zone defensive efficiency so good luck sleeping until Saturday (fun fact: the Longhorns are second).
This game reminds me a lot of 2018 when Iowa State came to town. Texas entered the matchup at 7-3 with designs on getting back to the Big 12 Championship game. The Cyclones came in with a five-game winning streak. The Horns were a slight three-point favorite but not many felt good about the game, as Brock Purdy was playing very well.
The Horns held Iowa State to 210 total yards that night and it never was a game.
Texas 24-10.
That game is the Don’t Stop Believin’ game, when in a completely organic moment, the DKR speakers blared the Journey hit and Longhorn fans pulled out their phone flashlights and sang their heart out.
Believe, Longhorn fans. This team is more than one man.
Texas 31 Kansas State 17
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Texas Rangers World Series Champion gear.
Journey with Steve Perry or Journey with Filipino Arnek Pineda? Lol. Always Steve Perry!! Thanks for hooking my girl up with a couple of adult beverages. Good seeing u guys!