Last Week: 4-2 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 22-24-2 (.458) (-$440) ATS 35-13 (.729) SU
Chalk (Ohio State –4.5 vs. Penn State):
Penn State still hasn’t won a road game against an AP Top-10 opponent since 2008. Ohio State’s defense only allowed 3.5 yards per play and the Nittany Lions only converted 1-of-16 third downs. You’re not going to win many games doing that.
Bad Beat (Tennessee +8.5 @ Alabama):
Tennessee had this one...until they didn’t. Much like Alabama did against Ole Miss and Texas A&M, they dominated the second half by the score of 27-0...the Vols go back to Knoxville from Tuscaloosa without a win once again.
Anyhow…
6 and 1.
Despite what your group text might be telling you, the Horns are indeed 6-1, with all goals still in front of them.
Were there some anxious moments last Saturday? Of course. The Cougars were inside the 10-yard line, and they were absolutely going to go for the two-point conversion and I don’t have the greatest confidence that Texas could have stopped them.
And yes, Tillman Fertitta, chairman of the University of Houston board of regents and owner of a mediocre NBA team and mediocre seafood chain, unless you want to tweet all the bad calls in that game, save your Tweets or Xs or whatever we’re calling them these days.
Onward and upward, kinda like how Dana Holgersen had to do after he had his temper tantrum on the ground last week. How embarrassing.
Some talking points going into this week:
MAALIK MURPHY, STEP RIGHT UP
We talked last week about how the Horns would be double-digit favorites for every game the rest of the year.
Well shit.
Quinn Ewers is out, could be a week, could be two weeks, could be several weeks they just don’t want to tell us that part yet. But the fact of the matter is the Horns will face at least BYU without QB1.
Nobody is going to feel sorry for the Longhorns. How many opponents have given up valuable practice time against other opponents this year because all of the sudden they wanted to switch to Steve Sarkisian’s perceived kryptonite, the 3/3/5 defense (which is highly debatable, by the way). The Longhorns have faced several backup quarterbacks this year.
They’ll likely face TCU’s backup quarterback. Iowa State’s starting quarterback that nearly beat the Longhorns last year in DKR was more interested in betting on Maryland and Illinois than learning the playbook, so he’s been out all year. Texas Tech is on their third quarterback, and the way Joey the Mouth goes through quarterbacks it might be their fifth or six by then.
It is next man up, and in this case the first man up is Maalik Murphy, the redshirt freshman from Inglewood, California (who you know is up to no good). Murphy is 4-of-8 for 47 yards in his Texas career, and if you know Maalik’s scouting report, it is likely that the recipient of those four passes might have a broken hand or two.
Murphy gets the opportunity to audition for a job in 2024 – whether it is in Austin or elsewhere. What a great opportunity.
And if he fails?
Then the third-string quarterback who has jerseys for sale in the team shop gets his chance.
DEFENSE MUST GET HEALTHY AND GET BACK
Ok, ok, I bragged about this defense a couple games ago. And since then they have given up 5.8 yards per play, which would project to be around 90th in the country if extrapolated to an entire year. Prior to that they were in the mid 4s, which would extrapolate to Top-15.
It’s a bit infuriating when I can sit there after about 10 beers and tell you that the next play is going to the slot receiver on a crossing pattern, but I’m sure that there is a good reason we let them complete that play about 12 times in a row.
Oh, and guess what is a feature of the BYU offense philosophy, if indeed they do have one as we’ll get into later?
Injuries are a concern on that side of the ball. Catalon. Watts. Collins. Thompson. Holmes. Barron. Burke. Bush. Numerous others, I’m sure. But at some point someone on that side of the ball is going to have to make a play (as a clearly hobbled Barron did on the last Houston play) someone is going to have to push themselves when their body is at its limit, and the coaching staff is going to have to trust the players that ARE in there.
KILLER INSTINCT
It was around this time last year that the Horns went to Stillwater and only put up three points in the second half. The following game they nearly blew a 31-10 halftime lead over Kansas State. There were numerous instances of the Longhorns giving away double-digit leads in 2021, as well.
To be clear, that has NOT been the modus operandi of the 2023 Longhorns. They have slept through some first quarters or some first halves, but Texas has been one of the best fourth quarter scoring teams in the country.
But that the other day cannot be acceptable.
The Horns jumped out 21-0 and then got cute and got their quarterback hurt in the process.
If they are going to have to play with their backup quarterback or the third-string quarterback for an extended period of time, then the margin of error lessens, the impact of every mistake heightens and letting someone hang around into the fourth quarter turns into losses.
Each and every one of the other 21 players is going to have to rally around the quarterback and make his life easier.
Do all of that, and your group text will be a lot quieter.
Oregon –6.5 @ Utah:
Both of these teams are 6-1 and 3-1 in Pac-12 play. Like most of the Pac-12, the thorn in Oregon’s side has been these Utah Utes. Two years ago, the Utes beat the Ducks twice by a combined score of 76-17, while Oregon pulled off a close victory last season. Oregon hasn’t won in Salt Lake City since 2016.
Running back/strong safety Sione Vaki continues his remarkable transition to offense. Against USC last weekend he had 5 catches for 149 yards and two touchdowns – the first 100-yard receiving game for the Utes all season.
It has been crazy how Utah keeps winning with the dearth of offensive talent due to injury. This will be Bo Nix’s 55th career start – the Ducks have to have a massive advantage here...right?
Oregon 28 Utah 17
Colorado @ UCLA –17:
Colorado started the season 3-0 but have since lost three of four, including that blown lead against Stanford two weeks ago when they were ahead 29-0. They are looking to become bowl eligible but have three ranked opponents on the schedule out of their last five...the margin of error is nil.
UCLA avoids Washington and Oregon on the schedule this year, therefore could stand to benefit as those in front of them in the Pac-12 standings start to play each other. In fact, they only have one ranked opponent the rest of the way.
Freshman phenom Dante Moore was benched last week in a win over Stanford, instead Chip Kelly went with Ethan Garbers, who threw for 240 yards and two touchdowns, but most importantly didn’t turn the ball over. Moore had three interceptions last week, including his third pick-six in as many weeks.
UCLA 31 Colorado 21
Florida v. Georgia –14.5 (Jacksonville, FL):
Georgia has won five of six in this series, and the last two haven’t been particularly close, winning 42-20 last year and 37-7 the year prior.
This is the first opportunity to see Georgia without Brock Bowers, who was lost to a leg injury two weeks ago. The schedule has been favorable for the Bulldogs, but after this week they have three straight ranked opponents.
The Bulldogs have had trouble running the ball this season. Daijun Edwards had their first 100-yard rushing game since Week 3 against Vanderbilt two weeks ago...but can they run on a non-Vanderbilt defense?
The Gators have won two in a row since that ugly loss in Lexington. Graham Mertz threw for a career high 423 yards last time out against South Carolina, and also added three touchdowns.
Florida finishes the season with four of five against ranked opponents, including two Top-5 teams. It’s not going to go well for them.
Georgia 34 Florida 20
Ohio State –14.5 @ Wisconsin:
Wisconsin hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 2010 – which includes three losses in the Big 10 Championship game. They’ve only beaten them once since 2004.
I can’t imagine that Wisconsin has anyone capable of covering Marvin Harrison, Jr, who had 11 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown when everyone in the stadium knew he was getting the ball.
The Buckeyes are good. Not as good as they have been, and not as good as Michigan (although it is Halloween weekend and the Wolverines have yet to appear in this column this year because their schedule has been THAT bad), but the defense is better than it has been in a while, and they face here freshman Braedyn Locke (@UTWuz), a freshman from Rockwall, TX. Locke started last week due to an injury to Tanner Mordecai that will keep him out for a while. He threw for 240 yards but barely completed 50% of his passes.
Ohio State 28 Wisconsin 17
Oklahoma –10 @ Kansas:
This one is tough – Kansas hasn’t beaten Oklahoma since 1997, but if you remember they should have beaten them in 2021 if not for some Sooner (Caleb Williams) Magic shining through.
There is some talk of Jalon Daniels perhaps being back for this one, but if he isn’t then it will be the third time that Jason Bean has started against the Sooners – he's thrown for 511 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions against them in his career.
The Sooners had a scare last week, needing a two-point conversion stop and an onside kick recovery to stifle an upset bid from Central Florida – are the Sooners the team that struggled against UCF, SMU and Cincinnati or the team that handled Texas?
Oklahoma 34 Kansas 20
BYU @ Texas –17.5:
The BYU Cougars are one of the few teams that Texas has a losing record against all-time – they stand at 1-4 against the Cougars. That one win was by one point in 2011.
BYU enters this one at 5-2...which is certainly a respectable mark but consider those wins are over:
Sam Houston 0-8
FCS Southern Utah 2-5
Arkansas 2-6
Cincinnati 2-5
Texas Tech 3-5
Even without an Excel spreadsheet I can tell you that is a mark of 9-29.
Kansas beat them by double digits. TCU whipped their tail.
The thing that stands out about the BYU offense is their utter lack of ability in running the football. The Cougars haven’t had a 100-yard rusher all season...in fact they only have had one back this year rush for as little as 80 yards THIS SEASON. They only had 405 rushing in their first six games, then Joey McGuire was more than gracious to let the Cougars run through his defense to the tune of 150 yards last weekend.
They are 122nd in total offense. 115th in plays of 10+ yards. 117th in yards per play.
Because of those limitations they want you to turn the ball over so that their bad offense only has to go so far. Quarterback Kedon Slovis started his career at USC, where he had a great freshman campaign but then lost his job to Jaxson Dart. He transferred to Pitt for a year but then realized that the Venn Diagram of great Pitt quarterbacks and Dan Marino is one circle so he transferred to BYU....where he has proceeded to throw for 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns to 4 interceptions this season.
They rely on turnovers. Third nationally in turnover margin. Once they get to the red zone they know they must score. They are 21-of-23 with 16 touchdowns in such situations. They’re not going to beat themselves (14th in penalities) and will pin you deep (22nd in punting).
Defensively they forced five Texas Tech turnovers last week, but the offense only scored 13 points off of those. They only have 7 sacks as a team, and DE Tyler Batty has half of those.
Don’t turn the ball over. Control the tempo. Make them drive the length of the field and keep their offense in front of you, and 7-1 shouldn’t be far away.
Hopefully your group text approves.
Texas 34 BYU 17
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for World Series tickets...in Arlington.
Didn't save my $$ for WS tix...spent it on this game instead. Much cheaper!! Will be there with the daughter, good Lord willin! Been a while...