The Week That Will Be: Halfway There
The second half of the season begins this week in Houston -- one mission: Destroy.
Last Week: 4-1-1 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 18-22-2 (.429) (-$600) ATS 30-12 (.714) SU
Chalk (Notre Dame –2.5 vs. USC):
The 4.1 yards per play last Saturday night for USC was the lowest in Lincoln Riley’s career at Oklahoma or USC. All three of Caleb Williams’s first half interceptions were converted into touchdowns – that's a winning formula for the Irish.
Bad Beat (Oregon @ Washington -3):
Dan Lanning was all talk earlier in the year against three touchdown underdog Colorado – but now sits at 0-3 in rivalry games in his time in Eugene, with all of them featuring controversial fourth down decisions by Lanning. There is being confident but there is also being reckless...one of those two field goals he passed up proved to be the difference.
Bye weeks. The worst.
It is sad that the best time of the year (college football season) is also the shortest, as we’re already halfway through the 2023 season, or if you are Notre Dame, three-fourths of the way through the season...the regular season that is.
It is, of course, the second half of the last season in the Big 12 Conference for the Longhorns, and the six teams left in the way between them and Arlington would like nothing more than to ruin all of your travel plans.
“You can go 1-11 if you beat Texas,” Houston coach Dana Holgersen said this week.
And it wasn’t the first time we’ve heard that this season.
@ Houston
BYU
Kansas State
@ TCU
@ Iowa State
Texas Tech
That is what lies between Texas and the Big 12 Championship game, which could very well be a de facto College Football Playoff quarterfinal.
The first College Football Playoff rankings are released on Halloween, and you’ll hear a lot between now and then what about this team and this team, and if this team beats that team, well what if this team doesn’t lose a game...yada yada yada.
Win their next seven games and the Longhorns will be going to either Los Angeles (the Rose Bowl) or New Orleans (the Sugar Bowl) for New Year’s for the right to play their way into the national championship game.
We talked in the very first column of this season about what?
Every second counts.
Talent gets you this far. Depth gets you this far. Coaching gets you this far.
The next step, the difference between a contender and a team that is always outside of the circle is that relentless attention to detail, that film study, that focus, that extra block and that mental focus to know that the team across from you, their last gasp for relevancy this season, is to be here and to steal your hopes and dreams because they aren’t good enough to be in your position.
We said it last week and we’ll say it again.
The Horns will be double-digit favorites in every regular season game left.
The only team that can beat them in the regular season is themselves.
Every second counts.
Tennessee @ Alabama –8.5:
Last season’s 52-49 Tennessee victory was the Vols’ first win against Alabama since 2006 – this year’s edition is going to look a lot different than last season’s, with an over/under of 48 points due to both teams having challenges on offense and both featuring Top 4 defenses in terms of defensive yards per play allowed.
Tennessee won last year by throwing deep early and often (Jalin Hyatt, if you remember, finished with 6 catches for 207 yards and 5 touchdowns...that’s Randy Moss against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving kind of numbers). This year the Vols are winning in a different manner, with defense and a rushing attack that is averaging 230 yards a game.
Joe Milton is ranked 11th in the conference in QB rating and Tennessee ranks near the bottom of the conference in explosive plays...they’ll need some of those to get only their third victory in Tuscaloosa this century.
Alabama nearly blew a 24-6 lead over (now) 2-5 Arkansas last week, giving up five sacks in the game. It was the fifth straight game that Jalen Milroe has been sacked at least four times. But they know exactly how to win games like this.
Alabama 20 Tennessee 14
TCU @ Kansas State –6.5:
This game doesn’t quite have the panache of last season’s Big 12 Championship game, but it could very well serve as an elimination game for the loser.
Chris Klieman’s wrinkle of inserting heralded freshman Avery Johnson in some situations in the game against Texas Tech last week led to Johnson playing the entire second half and it paid off – he rushed for five touchdowns, a feat that hadn’t been accomplished at Kansas State since Collin Klein was under center.
It remains to be seen if that is a permanent move or not, but with Texas the only ranked team on the Wildcats’ schedule and four of their last six at home, now is the time to seize the momentum.
Of concern for the Wildcats is their usually stingy defense – they have given up at least 21 points in each game against Power Five opponents and only rank 74th in the country in defensive yards per play after giving up 480 yards to a Texas Tech offense that was forced to play their third-string quarterback for much of the matchup.
They must now face a TCU offense that ran completely over BYU last week, with Josh Hoover filling in for the injured Chandler Morris admirably, throwing for 439 yards (though it took him 58 attempts to do so) with four touchdowns and two interceptions. Hoover wasn’t sacked in those 58 attempts, either.
This feels like another week where bad TCU shows up.
Kansas State 34 TCU 24
Duke @ Florida State –14.5:
The Blue Devils are off to an admirable start – they enter this week at 5-1 overall and 2-0 in the conference, but they have played five of their first six games at home – they now must play four of five on the road, starting with the Seminoles, who they have yet to beat in 19 tries.
It remains to be seen if quarterback Riley Leonard, he of the heroics against Clemson earlier this year, will be able to give it a go after getting injured on the final play against Notre Dame a few weeks back. Henry Belin IV (how Duke is that) filled in for him in their win over N.C. State last week and led them to victory, as much as a quarterback can when he only completes 4 passes.
Duke has a stingy defense – they have yet to give up more than 21 points to an opponent this year – but the Seminoles are a different story. They get their 13th win in a row.
Florida State 34 Duke 16
Utah @ USC –7:
Yes, the USC Trojans still have a football team and will even play this weekend.
It’s not going to be easy. Utah has beaten the Trojans three straight times, including twice last year – a 43-42 win in Salt Lake City and 47-24 in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
I’m not sure they have scored 40 something points combined in all of their games this season, however, as they rank 122nd in the country in offensive yards per play at only 4.5.
Cam Rising has yet to play this season, and now there is talk of him getting a medical redshirt and returning next season.
It is doubtful that USC can fix their line of scrimmage issues in one week as they were just out muscled against Notre Dame, giving up six sacks to a defense that only had 11 all year coming into the game.
Utah had to play their starting strong safety at running back last week – he proceeded to rush for 158 yards and two touchdowns! But those injuries are bound to catch up with them sometime. Buy low on the Trojans.
USC 31 Utah 23
Penn State @ Ohio State –4.5:
Oh man, Penn State! Ohio State! The Horseshoe! Big Noon! Best two defenses in the country (statistically)! Two of the best young quarterbacks in the country!
James Franklin: 1-8 against Ohio State. Only two of those by less than 7 points.
Last won in Columbus in 2011.
Oh, just for another data point, he’s 3-6 against Michigan.
I could go into more statistics, but I can’t get over that.
Ohio State 23 Penn State 17
Texas –23.5 @ Houston:
Unlike some other regional “rivalries” in these parts, Texas and Houston have only met on the field 25 times, as the Cougars didn’t join the Southwest Conference until 1976. They won the conference in their first season and in fact won three of the first four titles after they joined.
The Longhorns hold a 16-7-2 advantage over these Cougars, with none of those wins more satisfying than the 1990 45-24 Texas win over John Jenkins and the Cougars, who had enjoyed a three-year winning streak where the average margin of victory was 36 points. It might be best remembered for the great Wally Pryor imploring someone in the crowd to “get that idiot off the goalposts” after Texas fans rushed the field -- the last time that has happened.
The 2023 Houston Cougars are 3-3 and 1-2 in the Big 12 Conference, which of course is their first year in the conference. They defeated UTSA in their season opener but lost to Rice the following week in overtime (allowing J.T. Daniels to throw for 400 yards in the process), weren’t very competitive against TCU and Texas Tech, and last week needed a 49-yard Hail Mary to secure their first Big 12 win – and their first regular season win over a Power Five team since 2018.
And yet still allowed West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene, who will not be a finalist for the Davey O’Brien Award this season, to throw for 393 yards at 10.3 yards per attempt.
They had their defensive challenges in other games as well.
Those Mountaineers had 546 yards total. 400 yards to Texas Tech (who had two special teams touchdowns, lessening their possessions), 564 yards to TCU, 417 to UTSA, 470 to Rice. They’ve allowed 200 yards rushing three times this season, rank 96th in the country in defensive yards per play and only have 9 sacks in six games as a team.
Texas should be able to give you and I a dozen snaps and still score thirty-something points on this team.
Offensively they are led on the field by Donovan Smith, who of course Texas fans remember as the Texas Tech signal caller in the upset loss in Lubbock last September. Smith had a so-so start to the year but has been great lately, throwing for 8 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last two games. In fact, the Cougars only have three turnovers on the year, none of those coming in their last three ballgames.
He’s got a very good set of receivers but expect Smith to run a bit more than normal after Dillon Gabriel’s success in the Cotton Bowl, and the fact that the Cougars have had a back reach 100 yards only once this season. They had seven rushing touchdowns against Rice and Sam Houston but only one against the other four teams on their schedule.
Houston isn’t very good, but they’re good enough that if Texas has another game like they did against Rice or Wyoming where they sleep through entire halves, they’ll find themselves in a dogfight in the fourth quarter against an offense that is gaining confidence.
Be aggressive on offense, cut down Smith’s running lanes, finish out drives by not letting them convert money downs, and the Longhorns should have a stress-free ride home.
Texas 41 Houston 23
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for World Series tickets – in either Arlington or Houston.