Last Week: 2-3-1 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 26-31-3 (.433) (-$790) ATS 45-15 (.750) SU
Chalk (Alabama –3 vs. LSU):
Jalen Milroe had 374 total yards and 4 touchdowns in a back-and-forth affair until Jayden Daniels went out in concussion protocol in the second half. The Tide ran for 288 yards total. They can clinch the SEC West this week with a victory at Kentucky.
Bad Beat (Ole Miss –3 vs. Texas A&M):
The Aggies are now 6-12 in their last 18 against Power 5 opponents and have not won a road game since October of 2021. Max Johnson had his first 300-yard game since...he played Texas A&M as a member of the LSU Tigers in 2021.
I wasn’t concerned about last week’s game and wasn’t shy about telling people that.
And for about the first 28 minutes of the game, I looked like a genius.
Then the Longhorns started to roar back from ahead and make it a game.
But luckily, they defeated their own plans of self-sabotage and escaped the Wildcats from Kansas State with a victory and remained on the path for a conference championship game appearance – and kept their shot at the college football playoff.
A brief aside – quit worrying about that thing. If Texas wins out, they’re in. Because they make people turn on their televisions. They are the ones who knock. Whatever cliché fits your boat, insert it here. Nobody cares about Oregon.
The Texas defense broke Kansas State’s streak of rushing for 100 yards in a game at 28 games – they ended up with 30 yards. On 29 carries. Not 98 or 97 or 89....30.
There was one way that K-State was going to get back in the game and Texas opened the door wide open – with ineptitude in the red zone, with a blocked punt, with multiple turnovers from the signal caller (again) and a fumble in their own territory from their lead back – that game would have make Texas fans absolutely sick if it turned out the other way.
But it didn’t.
I’m seeing all the usual complaints from the 100,000 defensive coordinators in the stands, but Texas shut the Wildcats down when it mattered – even if it was a little close for comfort. That last play was a variation of the same play that Oklahoma ran on their final play of the Red River Shootout, but this time it was properly defensed and Will Howard had no choice but to fart and fall down and throw a panic heave.
Next up, two road games in territory that is not all that friendly to Texas. TCU’s success against the Horns is well known, and if they’re not going to go to a bowl game this year (more on that later), their bowl game would be ruining Texas’s chances at post-season play. And not to mention that Sonny Dykes would love to silence the critics of exactly who’s team he took all the way last year.
Then there is Iowa State – where the Horns have lost two in a row, and again they would like nothing more than to ruin Texas’s chances at a post-season berth. Are you noticing a pattern here.
Two weeks, two games against opponents that Texas should wipe up and down the field on paper – but you know as well as I do how that goes.
Leave no doubt – the thing about the conference putting these games at night hoping to see the Horns trip up in front of a hostile crowd (save it, I know television networks choose, but c’mon, those guys are tight) is that the eyes of the nation will be upon you.
Show them how Texas football plays.
Miami @ Florida State –14.5:
Florida State clinched a spot last week in the ACC Championship game for the first time in 9 years – of course they have their sights set higher. In a game of streaks – the Seminoles won 7 in a row, then Miami won 4 in a row and now the Seminoles are going for their third in a row – Miami would like nothing better than to ruin Florida State’s title chances.
Jordan Travis is playing like a warrior, throwing for a season-high 360 yards last week against Pitt (despite being down his two two receivers) while hobbling around the field. It could be something to watch, as he IS the Florida State offense – they only have one 100-yard rusher on the season.
Miami has lost three of five, and the two wins were in overtime. It doesn’t get any easier as they follow up this one with a game against Louisville, who is also ranked in the Top-15. The Hurricanes only scored 6 points against N.C. State last week as they had 4 turnovers, including three Tyler Van Dyke interceptions. He’s now had multiple interceptions in an incredible four straight games.
It doesn’t stand to reason that he gets healthy against a Seminoles defense that has only allowed four passing touchdowns all year and is holding opposing quarterbacks to less than 50% on completions, but I think Miami at least gives them a game.
Florida State 31 Miami 24
Ole Miss @ Georgia –10.5:
With that great schedule format that the SEC loves oh so much, these two teams haven’t played since 2016. Ole Miss is 8-1 with their only loss to Alabama, with only Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State remaining on their schedule. They could all but lock up at worst a NY6 bowl with a victory here.
Jaxson Dart threw for 387 yards and two touchdowns against Texas A&M last weekend, and Quinshon Judkins has three straight 100-yard games. He’s scored a touchdown in every game but one this year. Brady Cook was able to run on Georgia last week – will the Rebels do the same with Dart, who has run for 334 yards this year but hasn’t run as much lately?
That offense will go up against a Georgia defense that isn’t quite as strong as they have been, but they still haven’t given up more than 21 points in any game this season. One strange fact – they were at the bottom of the SEC in Red Zone defense last week before doing a better job against Mizzou, will they be able to do the same against Ole Miss? They’ll also have to do it without Butkus Award finalist and captain of the defense Jamon Dumas-Johnson, who fractured his arm last week.
The Bulldogs haven’t lost a home game since 2019, but they look more vulnerable. Which of course means they’ll likely win by 25.
Georgia 27 Ole Miss 24
Michigan –4.5 @ Penn State:
We would like to welcome Michigan to the 2023 College Football season. I hope they are prepared, but something tells me they will be.
Michigan is just 1-2 in their last three trips to State College but have won 6 of 9 overall. Drew Allar is going to have to play a heck of a lot better than he did against Ohio State, when he completed less than 50% of his passes at 4.5 yards per attempt.
Your nephew Johnny’s middle school team has had a tougher schedule than Michigan, but they haven’t allowed more than 13 points all season. The focus seems to be more on passing the football in Ann Arbor this year, as Blake Corum’s carries are down this season and he only has one 100-yard game all year.... but still has 16 touchdowns. J.J. McCarthy hasn’t thrown an interception since mid-September.
Michigan 28 Penn State 16
Utah @ Washington –8.5:
This one looked a lot more intriguing before Utah was hammered by Oregon two weeks ago at home. Utah took out that loss on poor Arizona State, who only managed 83 yards of offense against the Utes last week.
The Huskies have won 13 of 15 all-time in this series, and if they continue that trend, they will still be on track for an appearance in the Pac-12 Championship game and will remain a contender for the College Football Playoff – lose, and well the committee is begging for these Pac-12 teams to lose.
Michael Penix has been off of late, and Utah can certainly make him feel more off, but I just can’t see the Utes being able to keep up here.
Washington 31 Utah 17
USC @ Oregon –15.5:
Lincoln Riley had never lost more than two games in a season in his head coaching career but now has three with a tough schedule the rest of the way – defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was fired this week, but the Trojans will soon find out it is Riley that is the issue, not the defensive coordinator.
Oregon 42 USC 38
Texas –9.5 @ TCU:
TCU has won 8-of-11 against the Horns since they joined the Big 12, including last season’s 17-10 victory in Austin. This TCU team doesn’t resemble too much the Horned Frogs squads of recent years, and this Texas team is infinitely better, but it is still a trend that this team must overcome.
This Frog team still needs two wins to reach bowl eligibility with three games left – and two of those games are against Texas and Oklahoma. Their most impressive victory this season has been over...SMU? The choices are Nicholls, Houston and BYU – not exactly murderer’s row.
In fact, they have lost four out of five and it is unknown whether starting quaterback Chandler Morris will be back for this one. If not, it will once again be redshirt freshman Josh Hoover, who has thrown for 1,100 yards with 7 touchdowns and 7 interceptions at 6.8 yards per attempt while filling in for Morris. He can wonder you one minute and completely baffle you with ineptness the next, but down the road will be a fine player.
Emani Bailey has five 100-yard rushing games this year, and Alabama transfer Trey Sanders had three touchdowns in the opener against Colorado but only two since. The Frogs had trouble running the ball on Texas Tech (only 87 yards), which doesn’t bode well against this Texas defense. They don’t have the one receiver you fear like in previous years but they have a handful that are good enough to beat you on any given day.
And good news – the Frogs are even worse than Texas in red zone efficiency, where they rank 128th in the country. They also have turned the ball over four straight games and have turned it over multiple times in 6-of-9 games and rank 92nd in the country in penalties, but hey good news for them they’re playing Texas, where nobody gets called for infractions!
Defensively the Frogs rank 61st in the country in yards per play given up at 5.5 -- not terrible but they gave up 587 yards to Kansas State, 565 against Colorado, 428 to Texas Tech and 416 to SMU. They can certainly be had – if they don’t have your signals. They also don’t turn you over very much, they have only forced two in the last five games.
Just when you thought I was done telling you how terrible they are, their kicker is just 11-of-18 on the year, having missed 7-of-13 kicks from 40+ yards. In fact their whole special teams unit is terrible, ranking 95th in SP+ with a rash of bad decisions on return teams and they have trouble covering punts.
In other words, Sonny Dykes was lucky to have the roster he did last year.
Whether it be Murphy or Ewers or Manning or Wright or Shea Morenz back there, don’t turn the ball over, convert when you get into the red zone and don’t let them bust you on a big play and Texas should get out of here with their Big 12 Championship hopes still intact.
Texas 37 TCU 24
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Wurstfest fun.
Great thoughts, Matt. I expect at least one or two of this weekend’s games to have a significant impact on everyone’s playoff projections, as some of the leading playoff candidates face (finally) some pretty stiff competition. Sark’s announcement on Thursday that Quinn Ewers will start and play for the Longhorns on Saturday night is huge news. I really appreciate everything that Murphy did over the past two weeks, but he was downright awful after the first quarter of the Kansas State game, and I don’t think the game would have been nearly as stressful without his turnovers, near turnovers, and passovers (that’s my autocorrect, but I am now adopting “passover” to mean a missed throw or an open receiver that wasn’t thrown to). The cliche is “win as a team, lose as a team,”and that’s certainly true, but I think that a sub-100% Ewers is still significantly better than Murphy at this point in their careers. Hook ‘em!