Last Week: 3-3 ATS 6-0 SU
For the Year: 29-34-3 (.439) (-$820) ATS 51-15 (.773) SU
Chalk (Michigan –4.5 @ Penn State):
I’m not sure how serious we are supposed to take a conference where one of their top teams can be defeated by running the ball 30 consecutive times; now we wait another two weeks for Michigan and Ohio State to play somebody again – each other. Yawn.
Bad Beat (Ole Miss +10.5 @ Georgia):
The Bulldogs ran for more than 300 yards and Carson Beck threw for more than 300 – once again Lane Kiffin can’t get it done, and it is now 27 and counting for Georgia.
I just noticed that typo. Cringe.
It is one of the most used sports cliches going.
"That's a culture play."
What does that even mean?
It means that the play that was made was due to an amazing athletic feat, yes, but the fuel used for the feat was hating to lose more than you like to win.
Think DJ Metcalf a couple years ago:
Metcalf is one of the largest stars in the NFL and certainly doesn’t need to make plays like this to earn his keep. There were 10 other guys closer to the ball than he was. But they weren't going to win that play if he could help it.
So he chased down Budda Baker in a game that will live in NFL lore.
It was the same thing with 325-lb offensive lineman Larry Allen running down an interception.
The play that Jordan Whittington and Xavier Worthy made on Saturday night will go down in Texas lore.
Whittington and Worthy could have let others chase down the defensive back. They could have said ah hell we'll get them next drive.
Nope. They knew that Quinn Ewers was playing injured. They had his back. And Texas won the game because of it, even if they had no idea at the time that it would matter so much.
It did.
Think back to two years ago when the Longhorns faced the Cyclones in Ames in a game where the guys wearing white didn't appear to give a damn about the outcome of the game so much.
It was Iowa State, and they were Texas.
And, of course, they were cutting up on the bus after the game. You know what happened next.
Iowa State is the perfect epitome of the struggles of the Longhorns over the past decade. They are a team that wins on fundamental, physical football, slowly choking you into mistake after mistake and grinding you down until you lose.
Those Texas teams were not built for the fight. They were not built for physical battles on the interior. They were not built with a quarterback who could be patient.
And they didn't have the culture to win the fight.
This Texas team is. And does.
I don't know the ins and outs of why this team keeps letting teams back into the game. I do know it is a great problem to have that their biggest issue is blowing twenty-point leads.
This team circles you on the calendar every year. Their coach detests you.
Make them fuck around and find out.
Washington @ Oregon State –2.5:
Unsurprisingly the Huskies have won 10-of-11 in this series, including last season’s 24-21 win in Seattle, but it has been close lately, with the last three games being one-score affairs.
Washington trailed at the half last week against Utah before pitching a shutout in the second half. They are now 10-0 for the first time since their championship season in 1991 and three wins away from the college football playoff.
Meanwhile, Oregon State is 8-2 with a pair of three-point losses to ranked (at the time) Washington State and upstart Arizona. Their award for all of that is Washington this week and a trip to Eugene next week. Ouch.
The question here is can D.J. Uiagalelei perform in a big game? He hasn’t been at his best for them, but he’s got some help in 1000-yard rusher Damien Martinez, who had four touchdowns last week against Stanford.
The Beavers get the upset. Wait....what? They’re favored?
Oregon State 34 Washington 31
Utah @ Arizona –1:
I’m beginning to wonder if I write about the Horns or the Utes here.
Arizona hasn’t defeated Utah since 2015, but the Wildcats have now won four in a row, with three of those over AP Top-20 teams. It’s been quite the resurgence for Jedd Fisch, whose previous stops include Michigan, the Los Angeles Rams, the New England Patriots, the Denver Broncos under Mike Shanahan and the Seattle Seahawks under Pete Carroll.
Arizona 28 Utah 23
Georgia –10.5 @ Tennessee:
The Volunteers haven’t defeated Georgia since 2016 – in fact they have only scored 77 points in the six games since. A victory over the Bulldogs would certainly be better than any bowl game the 7-3 Volunteers team could get to, but if these previous quarterbacks couldn’t beat Georgia, do we expect Joe Milton to?
Georgia 34 Tennessee 17
Oklahoma State –7 @ Houston:
Houston hates my wallet, as the Cougars were embarrassed at home last week by Cincinnati, who had lost seven games in a row. It was their first Big 12 win.
Donovan Smith was terrible and Cougs running backs only contributed 51 yards. I hope they lost by 40.
You know, kinda like how Oklahoma State did with their Big 12 title hopes in their own hands.
Oklahoma State 34 Houston 24
Kansas State –8.5 @ Kansas:
The only team that hates my wallet more than Houston might be Kansas. The Jayhawks at least have an excuse, as Jason Bean went down to injury early and they had to insert third-stringer Cole Ballard into the game for his first action, although if football doesn’t work out with that name he has a great future as a country singer.
They even came roaring back to take the lead with seconds to go last week before blowing it with less than a minute to go. That defensive staff’s investment in Pete Kwiatkowski’s How to Play Excellent Two-Minute Defense podcast series did not pan out for them.
The Jayhawks have lost 14-straight to the Wildcats. I can’t see the country crooner breaking that streak.
Kansas State 38 Kansas 21
Texas –8 @ Iowa State:
Texas ended a three-game winning streak in this series by defeating Iowa State 24-21 last year in Austin in a bizarre game that included some key drops and mistakes.
Since then, about half of Iowa State’s team was suspended for gambling or went out to do whatever Iowa State athletes do after college. Their year started at 2-3 with a blowout loss at Oklahoma, it looked like more of the same after they went 4-8 a year ago.
But they’ve now won three of four to get back into the Big 12 race. Don’t apologize for win streaks but those wins this year are over Northern Iowa, early season Oklahoma State, TCU, @ Cincinnati, @ Baylor and @ BYU – not exactly murderer’s row.
They ran for 234 yards last week in their win against BYU. As we talked about above, they like to play physical football and limit mistakes. As such, they are 5-1 when they rush for 120 yards or more, and 1-3 when they don’t.
Quarterback Rocco Becht is a freshman from Florida. He’s thrown for 2,120 yards with 15 touchdowns and 7 interceptions at 7.4 yards per attempt. Solid, but not great. Six of those interceptions have come in their four losses – just further evidence of how close to the margins that they play.
Iowa State has converted 24-of-24 chances in the Red Zone into points in Big 12 play – a year after finishing near the bottom of the country in that mark.
Defensively they have only given up one 300-yard passer this season, against Oklahoma. Their trouble is against the run. BYU’s run troubles are well known this year but yet they were able to rush for 188 yards against the Cyclones last week at 4.9 yards per carry. They’re a team that likes to force turnovers to help their offense – they have forced multiple turnovers in six games this year.
It will be important to get to a quick start – the Cyclones are 4-0 when they score first and 1-4 when they do not. They’re also 5-0 when leading at halftime.
Play solid defense – make them drive the field – don't turn the ball over and be patient.
Do all of that and the Horns will have an unspoiled date with Texas Tech where they will be able to hand out a little retribution.
Texas 31 Iowa State 24
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for turkey and dressing.
This might be the first college football article this week to not mention the cringe-worthy sign stealing scandal at Michigan. There might be some unused trash cans in Houston if Harbaugh prefers a more high tech approach next time.
I’m trying to draw a parallel between that and the Longhorns’ inability to play drama-free football games, but I got nothing. I’m thankful for the wins, but I don’t know if my blood pressure can take much more of this.... Hook ‘em!