The Week That Will Be: Felina
Blood, sweat and tears makes a good football team great
Last Week: 2-3-1 ATS 4-2 SU
For the Year: 5-6-1 (.417) ($160) ATS 7-5 (.583) SU
Chalk (Oklahoma –5.5 vs. Michigan)
Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer is the national media’s darling of the week after a performance where he accounted for 344 of Oklahoma’s 408 total yards and scored three touchdowns, but color me skeptical that a quarterback can consistently run the ball 19 times against a SEC schedule.
Bad Beat (SMU –2.5 vs. Baylor)
SMU led 38-24 with 8:38 left, but Sawyer Robertson (440 yds 34-of-50 4 TDs) was once again flawless as Baylor avoids falling to 0-2.
Yes, I am back this week despite picking Oklahoma State to cover – I mean what the absolute you know what, Mike Gundy?
The one advantage to a 11 AM home game is that I get to watch more of the other games on the slate. I watched South Florida defeat Florida, I listened to a halftime show from the Georgia broadcast where they had the bright idea to take callers when the Bulldogs were only up 14-3 on Austin Peay at halftime, and I watched Ole Miss and LSU both pull off lackluster wins.
And I saw a lot of bitching about the Horns “only” winning 38-7 over “pathetic” San Jose State.
Twelve penalties for 115 yards is never acceptable. Especially when they wipe out 28-yard plays on the first play of the game. The offensive line still looks to be a work in progress...checks notes....120 minutes into the season. And yes, you would love that Arch Manning and Ryan Wingo be on the same page as soon as they stepped on the field this season. Going 2-of-12 on third downs doesn’t inspire confidence but look at the first sentence in this paragraph.
And oh yes, the Longhorns tried the bold new strategy of goal line offense of only lining up 10 players, who needs a left tackle anyways? Unacceptable, and that one goes all the way up to the head coach.
But I saw a lot of good, too.
Arch Manning accounted for five touchdowns, including one on a scramble that was something his predecessor simply could not do. You would like that completion percentage to be higher, but his mechanics were better, his command of the huddle is there, and his pocket presence is ahead of schedule.
Whether it is this week or next week or against Florida or against Oklahoma, the game is going to slow down for Arch, and it is going to be a sight to behold when it does. He just needs reps.
It would help if the Horns could establish and flash more in the run game and bring those safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, but there are a lot of guys that get paid lots of money that get to the office when you are still in bed and get home from the office when you are already in bed to figure out all of that.
I saw Jaylon Guilbeau come up with his first career interception (and damn near get another) and I saw Anthony Hill force two fumbles, and I saw Tyanthony Smith outplay them all in his best game as a Longhorn. I saw a defense hold an offense to 4.4 yards per attempt and 2.9 yards per carry, saw them go 0-for-9 on balls thrown 20+ yards and saw that the longest play of the game was 21 yards and the longest run 13 yards.
It is a long season, Texas fans, and we’ve got to come to realize that the days of rolling out and defeating every non-conference opponent by 50 points are done (unless they are coached by Mike Gundy, apparently). We’ve got to come to realize that the days of an undefeated national champion are most likely over. And we’ve got to come to realize that a lot of factions on this team, most of them on offense, are a work in progress, and while that level of play won’t work in the Swamp or in Dallas or in Athens, the fact of the matter is that they weren’t in those locations on Saturday, nor will they be this weekend.
At some point you have to trust this coaching staff that has produced two straight semi-finals appearances that they know what they are doing, that they know what they need to work on and that the results you see each week are a snapshot, not a finished product.
They’ve earned that.
Clemson –3.5 @ Georgia Tech
This is the 89th meeting between these two, Georgia Tech has a sizeable lead in the series but hasn’t defeated Clemson since 2014.
Clemson is one of the great mysteries of the young season, as they looked awful in week one at home against LSU and then were down 16-0 to Troy last weekend and were relentlessly booed in their own stadium in the second quarter. They eventually came back and won, but only rank 31st in the SP+ rankings and have only scored 37 points thus far this season, with 13 of those coming on extremely short fields. The issue is simple – they can’t run the football, and Cade Klubnik hasn’t handled the blitz very well, a skill he had no issue with last season.
The Yellow Jackets traveled to Boulder in week one and defeated Colorado 27-20 on the legs of sixth-year quarterback Haynes King, who rushed for 156 yards and three touchdowns, but King missed last week with an injury sustained in that game. No matter – Georgia Tech put up 680 yards on Gardner Webb. They have an outstanding offensive line, but lack the defensive mettle to pose much of a threat against the better clubs (if they play up to their potential).
Clemson 34 Georgia Tech 28
Wisconsin @ Alabama –20.5
Last year wasn’t much of a contest in Madison, as Alabama won 42-10 in what was the Badgers’ worst loss in 16 years.
The Luke Fickell hasn’t gone well, but what kind of plan is it to go into a college football season with a guy named Billy as your starting quarterback and a guy named Danny as his backup? Billy is still uncertain for this one after a non-contact injury sustained in their first game so Danny might have to play, but it doesn’t matter because neither one of them are winning in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama 41 Wisconsin 13
Florida @ LSU –7.5
Lol.
Florida gathered the buyout money for Billy (hey, wait a minute) Napier last year, then they went on a winning run (and came really close to beating Georgia, apparently close counts in horseshoe, hand grenades and Florida Gators football), so they decided to spend the buyout money instead on the transfer portal and recruiting – and go out and lose to South Florida in the second game of the new season.
And now on the schedule the next few weeks? LSU, Miami, Texas and Texas A&M.
They’ll be firing Billy and bringing in Danny shortly.
The Gators ended a five-game losing streak to LSU last year in Gainesville, prevailing 27-16, but have not won in Baton Rouge since 2016, and don’t figure to here, unless D.J. Lagway goes hero ball, which is entirely possible.
Napier is now 20-20 in his first forty games at Florida – Dan Mullen was fired shortly after going 31-9.
LSU didn’t impress much against Louisiana Tech last week after everyone declared them the national champs. They still can’t run the football, as Caden Durham only has 103 yards in two games, but it won’t matter here.
LSU 27 Florida 23
Georgia –3.5 @ Tennessee
Kirby Smart was hired by the Georgia Bulldogs in time for the 2016 season – Kirby would go 8-5 that year, with one of those losses to Tennessee, their last victory in the series.
Butch Jones was still their coach.
And they weren’t close, either. None of those 8 straight losses have been by less than 14 points.
The Vols, of course, had quite the off-season, as quarterback Nico Iamaleava was basically traded for Joey Aguilar, the Appalachian State quarterback who transferred to UCLA initially but pivoted to Tennessee once Iamaleava arrived on the west coast. Aguilar is your classic gunslinger, dangerous as hell for both teams, as Tennessee is averaging 9.1 yards per play through two games, but Aguilar threw an FBS-high 14 interceptions in 2024 and had 24 in two seasons in Boone. Last year’s Vols team featured the best defense since the Phil Fulmer years, and they are expecting much the same this year in Knoxville, but the offense was the question mark, they only return one wide receiver, a tight end and a left tackle.
It’s Gunner Stockton’s team in Athens, so far to mixed results. Stockton completed 26 passes last week against Austin Peay – but 14 of those were screen passes and another four were within five yards of the line of scrimmage. He was just 6-of-18 on passes longer than 5 air yards. He’s a work in progress, but with ranked opponents in four of their next five games, Stockton needs to be able to work the ball downfield to his myriad of weapons, which includes USC transfer Zachariah Branch.
The Bulldogs must replace 4 starters on the offensive line and a ton on defense, but there is no such thing as a rebuilding year in Athens.
Georgia 28 Tennessee 24
Texas A&M @ Notre Dame -7
Notre Dame won 23-13 last year in College Station, in a game where the Domers’ rushing attack wore down the Aggies by the fourth quarter – both starting quarterbacks in that game are no longer on campus, but both teams would like nothing more than to get a win with a strong running game and a strong defensive effort.
Aggie quarterback Marcel Reed was injured against Utah State, but looks to be giving it a go here. Reed starting off great last season after replacing Conner Weigman but faded down the stretch once the book was out on him. The Aggies would be wise to lean on a veteran offensive line (returned every starter this year) and a running game of Reed, Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels (that duo combined for 1400 yards and 18 touchdowns last season) and healthy again Reuben Owens and protect a defense that has given up 20+ points to UTSA and Utah State thus far.
Notre Dame had to sit on that bitter loss to Miami for two weeks, so they certainly have something to prove. Texas A&M hasn’t defeated a ranked opponent on the road since 2014 – it isn’t happening here.
Notre Dame 28 Texas A&M 14
UTEP @ Texas –41.5
Texas and UTEP have met six times in their esteemed series history, but yet the most memorable moment from this series is the act of young love from a couple on the side of a mountain who were definitely not trying to create another life at the moment. UTEP has scored all of 46 points combined in their six meetings.
UTEP does not exactly have a storied history – Mike Price was there in the early aughts for 9 years and took them to a bowl game three times – they have been to a bowl game twice since he was let go after the 2012 season.
The latest coach to give it a go out there is 35-year-old Scotty Walden from Cleburne, Texas (I’ve been to Cleburne, fine little town, a killer Chinese takeout place that I can’t remember the name of but if I ever decide to start a travel Substack I’ll be sure to find out if it is still good 25 years later), who coached previously at FCS Austin Peay immediately before his time in the desert.
His Miners went 3-9 in 2024, with their biggest issue being on the offensive side of the ball. They finished near the very bottom in offensive efficiency and scored 24 points or less in all of their losses.
In fact, his first year in El Paso needed such a reset that both coordinators were replaced. Both coordinators are also in their thirties.
There is some hope in El Paso that former five-star quarterback Malachi Nelson can reverse their offensive woes, but he’s at his third school in three years and while there is no shame in not beating out Caleb Williams at USC as a true freshman, you’d like to think that a talent such as he is could beat out Maddux Madsen at Boise State last year.
The Miners like to play fast (they rank 30th in seconds per play but probably would like to be higher than that) and balanced (roughly 50/50 pass/run ratio on the young season), but not necessarily well (113th in yards per play). Nelson has thrown for 456 yards and 5 touchdowns thus far with an interception. You don’t have to worry about him as a rusher, he has negative rushing yards in his career.
Defensively, the Miners weren’t an embarrassment last season, and in some areas (getting after the quarterback) actually did well, but of course in the food chain that is college football these days they sit near the bottom so whatever they had was poached and FCS talent and miscasts were left to pick up the slack.
On the scale of Colorado State last season and South Florida against Florida UTEP is very much in the camp of the former, but of course the most important job of the Longhorns on Saturday is working on the things they need to work on to be successful the rest of the year, scoreboard be damned.
On another note, Walden has two sons, Luca and Maverick. Fuck you Nico Harrison.
Texas 45 UTEP 7
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for a romantic getaway to the hills of El Paso.
Today marks the 24th anniversary of the attack on America on September 11, 2001.
That event shattered the conciousness of this country and left an unforgettable scar, but the way this country came together and galvanized into one was a beautiful thing to behold and proved once again how strong this country can be focused on one common goal. Unfortunately, in the time since the American people have lost their way and the tribalization the country has succumbed to shows us we broke our promise to those that were sacrificed that day.
We did indeed forget.
Well done, my man.