The Week That Will Be: Dust In the Wind
The Horns host a Top-25 matchup this weekend looking go stay perfect
Last Week: 2-3-1 ATS 5-1 SU
For the Year: 10-13-1 (.417) (-$410) ATS 17-7 (.708) SU
Chalk (Alabama –7 vs. Ole Miss): The Crimson Tide trailed at halftime 7-6 but dominated the second half to come out on top. Ole Miss was held to a season low in points (10), first downs (17) and total yards (301). It was the lowest point total in a conference game in the Lane Kiffin era, as well. The defensive play calling seemed to hold a grudge?
Bad Beat (Colorado +20.5 @ Oregon): Bo Nix was 22-of-24 in the first half as Oregon raced out to a 35-0 lead, meaning they had more points than Colorado had yards (21). We also learned that Dan Lanning is a clown.
I went back this week and read what I wrote about after the 2021 loss to Kansas.
“We’ve talked about the talent issues ad nauseam here and elsewhere, but Texas has enough talent in their second string to stay within three touchdowns of Kansas in a half.
I believe what we are seeing here is a perfect storm of bad personnel, bad defensive schemes, an average to below average quarterback room and zero vocal leadership in the locker room. Throw that all in a pot and you get bad football stew and apparently a recipe to lose to Kansas for the second time in five meetings.”
Steve Sarkisian this week talked about how that storm, as unwanted as it might have been, might have helped Texas.
“Not all storms come to cause issues in your life,” Sarkisian said. “Some storms come to clear the path. And I felt like that storm cleared a path for us on what we needed to do in our program moving forward.”
I talked that week about that need to reassess the program after year.
What an assessment job it was.
The Longhorns have rebuilt the right way, with strength in the trenches, suffocating defense and an offense that scored 21 points in a quarter for the fourth time this season on Saturday.
Only USC and Washington have accomplished that more this year.
But perhaps most importantly, a winning culture has returned to Austin.
Sarkisian is fond of saying, “talent is great, but culture wins...it finds a way to win through adversity.”
Whether it is struggling through a half against Rice or tied in the fourth quarter with Wyoming or down going into the fourth quarter against Tuscaloosa, these Horns have won a way to win each game by double digits, meaning that they are 4-0 with all double-digit wins for the first time since 2009.
The good ol’ days.
When beating Baylor was expected, and real talk, after the first series last weekend, it was expected here too.
This upcoming two-game stretch, both against ranked opponents, is pivotal. Win both and the Horns go into the bye week with a perfect record halfway through the season and sit firmly in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 championship game, with perhaps their toughest opposition out of the way already.
Lose one or both...well let’s not discuss that, because frankly, this team doesn’t deserve that defeatist talk right now.
The Jayhawks have won here before. They will not be intimidated walking onto that turf Saturday afternoon.
But, question is, will they be intimidated when they leave it?
Arkansas v. Texas A&M –6.5 (Arlington, TX):
The Aggies have won 10 of 11 in this series, including last year’s affair which included such weirdness as a fumble return for a touchdown that went down in the books as an 82-yarder when it was more like 96 yards and featured a lateral and of course the infamous double doink at the end of the game.
Texas A&M’s Conner Weigman is out for the year, so his replacement will be Max Johnson, who has been up and down (mostly down) in his career.
Lucky for him he’ll face an Arkansas defense that is 125th (out of 133 teams) in the country in defensive yards per pass attempt.
Texas A&M 28 Arkansas 24
USC –21.5 @ Colorado:
Colorado got thrashed last week but that was to be expected at some point – they look to regain a bit of mojo here against a USC team that supposedly fixed their defense in the off-season (their defensive yards per play is down a full yard from last season) but gave up 28 points to an Arizona State team missing their starting quarterback.
There are no issues with the USC offense, of course. They average 9.1 yards per play, good enough for second in the country (behind Washington). Those teams are a full yard ahead of everyone else in the country.
USC 45 Colorado 17
LSU –2.5 @ Ole Miss:
Lane Kiffin trolled all last week and then lost to Nick Saban (again). The general feeling in Oxford is “if not then, then when” and I can’t say that I blame them. To make matters worse, Kiffin tweeted out a very Mack Brown-like apology after the game only to delete it later.
Jayden Daniels led LSU to 31 points in the last 31 minutes of their game against Arkansas last week – which was much closer than expected. Daniels has 950 yards passing and 13 total touchdowns since that opening week loss to Florida State.
This has the potential to be a bit of a shoot-out, as LSU comes into this one allowing a very un-LSU like 5.8 yards per play defensively, only good enough for 89th in the country.
LSU 34 Ole Miss 28
Utah @ Oregon State –3.5 (Friday):
Oregon State and Washington State played one of the most underrated games of Week 4, with the Cougars racing out to a 35-14 lead before the Beavers fought back before eventually falling 38-35. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, D.J. Uiagalelei was mostly ineffective in a big game, completing only 17-of-34 passes for 198 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
It was their running game that brought them back in that one, as they rushed for 242 yards and 4 touchdowns against WSU – here they will face a Utah defense that is only allowing 9.5 points per game and held UCLA to 9 rushing yards on 32 carries last week (with 7 sacks).
The Utes offense has been struggling with Cam Rising still out – and Ja’Quinden Jackson is uncertain for this one after being hobbled last week. That lack of decent quarterback play has to catch up to them at some point.
Oregon State 27 Utah 23
Notre Dame –5.5 @ Duke:
College Gameday is in town for this one, as Notre Dame bought some manual counters on Amazon to ensure that they always have 11 defenders on the field.
This is a sneaky good quarterback matchup, as Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman has all the accolades (though he was held to 175 yards passing last week by Ohio State), but Duke’s Riley Leonard impressed in that season opening win against Clemson, he’s yet to throw an interception this season, of course he’s also only thrown two touchdown passes, but he’s not going to lose the game for you and can run when he has to.
The Blue Devils have one of the best statistical defenses in the country, sitting at 4th in the country in defensive yards per play but I'm not sure they have the manpower to get this done if Hartman is more like himself.
Notre Dame 27 Duke 17
Kansas @ Texas –16.5:
The Kansas Jayhawks are 4-0, meaning they are 4-0 for the first time in back-to-back seasons in 108 years.
Back when Lou Holtz was just a lad. Shame on you, Ryan Day.
The narrative this week seems to be that Kansas has the same dangerous offense we have come to know these past two seasons, and this season they are bringing an effective defense.
And then you notice that their opponents this year have an average offensive efficiency that is only good enough for 85th in the country.
They are better, sure, but it is tough to be worse than a team that gave up 427 rushing yards to Texas last season.
They gave up 50% on conversions on money downs to Illinois and allowed them to rush for five yards per carry. They allowed a winless Nevada team to score 24 points and again almost convert 50% of their money downs. Same with a BYU team last week that reminds nobody of their Steve Young years.
Sure, they are improved, but that would be like saying my record in picking these games is better because I’m only three games under .500 when last year at this time I was nine games under (it was a disastrous week one last year).
On offense the Jayhawks return Jalon Daniels and Jason Bean at quarterback, not at the same time, of course. Those two took over from Todd Reesing at quarterback, I’m convinced of it.
Daniels is completing nearly 75% of his passes this season at 9.4 yards per attempt. They won’t face much better this year, if any. He’s not running the ball as much this young season, only averaging 2.7 yards per carry and zero rushing touchdowns after scoring 7 last season.
He doesn’t have to run as much because the Jayhawks have Devin Neal in the backfield. Neal has rushed for at least 89 yards in each game this season. As a whole, Kansas is averaging 6.7 yards per play this season...for reference, Texas is averaging 6.5.
They are legit. And calculating. And methodical.
But this defense faces better in practice every day.
Horns win comfortably but a late Kansas score opens the back door.
Texas 34 Kansas 20
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for TX/OU Friday debauchery.