The Week That Will Be: Clair De Lune
Vegas likes the Horns -- you should, too.
So, you want to bet your hard-earned cash on the Texas Longhorns to win the national championship?
Well, bad news. The Longhorns currently have the best odds to win said championship out of the remaining teams in the tournament. Meaning, you will get the least bang for your buck.
That could be a simple probability factor based on their perceived path – Vegas gives Texas a better chance of beating Arizona State than they do Oregon beating Ohio State, thus Oregon’s chances will be lessened, but it just goes to show that there is no “super” team in this field, there is no “super” quarterback, and there is no greatest coach of all-time (at least yet) in this field.
So why not Texas?
Win this one and get past Oregon or Ohio State, and anyone else they will face won’t be as strong as either of those teams from the Big 10, not with Carson Beck’s injury and Notre Dame’s lack of passing game and Penn State’s coaching liability just waiting to rear its ugly head at any moment.
Perhaps the biggest factor that Texas has going for it is that the offense is the healthiest it has been all season – if Isaiah Bond (and to a lesser extent, Cam Williams) is a go, of course.
Jaydon Blue showed a burst he lacked for three months against Clemson; Quinn Ewers has been as good as anyone for the past month and the offensive line is great against everyone but Georgia and has the depth to outlast anyone. Quintrevion Wisner can handle a heavier workload with 10 days between games now.
And no, I’m not worried about the defense despite that second half against Clemson.
It is certainly cliche, but Texas can’t defeat Oregon or Ohio State without defeating a pesky Arizona State squad first, so we’re not between the lines so we’re allowed to get over our skis a little bit here.
There is still a lot of football to be played, and this season has shown that anything can happen, but I like the Longhorns’ chances from here on out – keep the focus, keep the culture and let others do the talking.
And then we might just meet in the moonlight under the lighted fountains of the Bellagio.
The Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Penn State –10.5
First up is the Fiesta Bowl, featuring three-seed Boise State and six-seed Penn State – so obviously Penn State is a huge favorite. What a playoff format.
The Nittany Lions rather easily handled SMU, but if you dig a bit deeper, they were gifted two defensive touchdowns and struggled a bit offensively against the Mustangs, as Drew Allar was only 13-of-22 for 127 yards, however Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 160 yards and three touchdowns. They’ll face a Boise State defense that held 10 of their last 11 opponents to 24 points or less.
But, of course, that isn’t the most fascinating matchup of this game – it is All-World Ashton Jeanty, he of the 2,500 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns this season against the Penn State defense that finished the season ranked 5th in the country in defensive yards per play.
But – USC, Oregon and Ohio State, the most prolific offenses that Penn State played this season, managed to run on the Nittany Lions, each running for 170 yards on them. And a solid defense all-around finished only 37th in defensive rushing success rate. Now that is a Big 10 offensive line versus a Mountain West offensive line, but I don’t see Penn State just shutting down Jeanty, whose worse game this season still featured 127 rushing yards.
I just don’t think it will be enough, however.
Penn State 31 Boise State 24
The Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State –2.5
The “Granddaddy of them all” certainly rings true this year, as this matchup is probably the best of all of the playoff games this week on paper.
It is, of course, a re-match of the meeting between these two in October, when Oregon defeated Ohio State 32-31 when an Ohio State drive failed in Oregon territory in the final seconds. Will Howard was the goat of that one, but he’s coming off perhaps his finest outing of his season last time against Tennessee, when he completed 24-of-29 passes for 311 yards and two touchdowns (and an interception, just because it is Will Howard).
This was the offense that Ohio State fans expected to see all season as they rolled up 7.4 yards per play on the Volunteers, with an efficient Howard throwing to super frosh Jeremiah Smith (6 catches for 103 yards and two touchdowns), Emeka Egbuka (5/81) and with prolific rushing attack from Quinshon Judkins (two touchdowns) and TreVeyon Henderson (14 touches for 134 yards and two touchdowns).
That’s the Ohio State offense, the defense has shown up all season, as Oregon was the only team on their schedule to score more than 17 points on them – but Dillon Gabriel did throw for 341 yards at 10 yards per attempt and two touchdowns against them the first time.
We will see if Gabriel can continue that success, and if the Ohio State offensive line that is held together with duct tape at this point can hold up against a challenging Oregon front, but Oregon has been consistent all season, and I don’t see that changing now.
Oregon 34 Ohio State 28
The Sugar Bowl: Georgia –1.5 vs. Notre Dame
This one has the potential to finish 9-6, ala Alabama and LSU.
Carson Beck has been ruled out not only for this game but for the entirety of the playoffs, meaning the Georgia offense that had a non-existent running game for much of the season will now rely on that running game and the arm of Gunner Stockton, a former four-star recruit who has attempted 51 passes in his two years at Georgia and has as many career interceptions (2) as he has touchdowns.
Stockton broke Trevor Lawrence’s state-record for passing yards and Deshaun Watson’s state record for total yardage, and rushed for more touchdowns in high school than Jahmyr Gibbs, but those defenders are studying to be architects and math teachers while the defense he’ll face in this game ranked 4th in the country in defensive yards per play and can shut down any passing offense, much less one led by a guy making his first career start.
That Notre Dame defense held Indiana to their second-lowest scoring total of the season and only 278 total yards, and only allowed one team to score more than 24 points all season.
My problem with the Irish in this one is that while their running game is the most prolific the Bulldogs will have season all season, give Kirby Smart a month to gameplan against an offense that is very one-dimensional and the opponent generally doesn’t fare well. If Notre Dame is down by two scores in the fourth quarter, can Riley Leonard make the plays to get his team across the finish line?
One more note – don't discount the injury to Georgia punter Brett Thorson in the SEC Championship game, as Texas fans found out this season, a great punter is a very valuable piece to a team with a defense but suspect offense.
The Irish haven’t won a “New Years 6” game since the 1993 Cotton Bowl with Lou Holtz against Texas A&M – against my better judgment, I just don’t think Georgia will be able to make enough plays on offense to win this one.
Notre Dame 24 Georgia 17
The Peach Bowl: Texas –12.5 vs. Arizona State
These teams have met just once – the 2007 Holiday Bowl when Colt McCoy and Jamaal Charles went off and the Texas sideline was chanting RUDY on the sidelines in the fourth quarter, taunting Sun Devils quarterback Rudy Carpenter, who couldn’t keep his mouth shut the week leading up to the game.
There must be something in the water out there.
The one doing the talking this week is freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt – who started his career at Michigan State but found a home in the desert this year, throwing for 2,663 yards and 24 touchdowns versus only 5 interceptions and completed 63% of his passes this season at a healthy 8.8 yards per attempt. The problem for Leavitt is that his top target – sophomore wide receiver and third-team All-American Jordyn Tyson will miss this one with a broken collarbone – Tyson accounted for 75 catches for 1,100 yards, 10 touchdowns and was the Sun Devils' leading receiver in 8 of their games.
That’s an issue because their leading wide receiver in Tyson’s absence is Xavier Guillory, who only had 19 catches all year, while their leading pass-catcher is tight end Chamon Matamayer, who had 29 catches this season. It should be noted that Arizona State was without Tyson in the Big 12 title game and the Sun Devils still rolled up 467 yards against a solid Iowa State unit, but it is a huge loss.
Of course, the Sun Devils lived and died in that game with their senior running back Cam Skattebo (I bet this the only preview this week that waits until the fifth paragraph to mention him), but if you are reading this column, you are familiar with him and his 1,568 total yards (second only to Ashton Jeanty) and 22 touchdowns already. It isn’t as simple as loading the box and beating him with numbers, as Skattebo is shifty enough to beat multiple defenders and also has 37 catches this season.
He is a problem and is the lifeblood of this offense, which is why they only went 3-2 in games in which he did not rush for 100 yards. Oh, and he doesn’t fumble – he only had three this season, and only lost one. In fact, the Sun Devils only had 8 as a team, ranking third in the country in giveaways a game – that is a formula for success.
One mystery for the Sun Devils this year – they ranked 114th in red zone scoring percentage. How is that possible with Skattebo and an All-American wide receiver? It didn’t help that their kickers combined to only convert 9-of-17 field goals – 132nd in the country.
This Sun Devils defense was a solid unit much of the year, ranking 30th in the country in defensive yards per play (5.0) and only allowing one team (BYU) to throw for 300 yards on them, but three of their top four tacklers are defensive backs, including their top two, which is never a great sign, they don’t get to the quarterback very often, ranking 123rd in sack percentage, don’t stop a lot of people on third down and gave up 100 yards rushing 8 times, and 150 yards rushing 4 times.
They’re fine, and you can certainly win a lot of games in the Big 12 with a good offense and a “fine” defense that is smallish up front, but you aren’t going to win many playoff games like that.
Contain Skattebo, tighten up the blank spots in coverage that Cade Klubnik found, and the Texas offense should find success in the running game against a small defensive front, and Quinn Ewers should be able to feast when they move defenders around to stop the bleeding.
The Sun Devils enter this game on a six-game winning streak, but how will that momentum be affected after a 24-day layoff? How will they scale up against a more formidable opponent?
I don’t think they will fare well at all.
The Longhorns become the first team to win each of the NY6 bowls – the Cotton, the Fiesta, the Sugar, the Rose, the Orange and the Peach – but more importantly, they move on, one step closer to the national championship.
Texas 38 Arizona State 20
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Arlington.