Last Week: 3-3 ATS 3-3 SU
For the Year: 36-39-3 (.462) (-$690) ATS 51- 27 (.654) SU
Chalk (Michigan +7.5 @ Ohio State): Ryan Day is now 33-2 as Ohio State’s head coach in the conference but those two matter a whole lot more than the 33. Michigan had four very nice touchdowns of 69 yards or longer (81% of their yards were on 9 plays!). The Buckeyes had better have an off-season of reflection after getting run off of their home field by a team playing without their best player.
Bad Beat (LSU –9.5 @ Texas A&M): For whatever reason Devon Achane decided to come back for a 4-7 Aggie squad and they are glad he did as he rushed for 215 yards on 38 carries (!) and two touchdowns. The money downs are where this game was won because LSU was 4-of-12 while Texas A&M was 11-of-16. Extend Jimbo! See, he doesn’t need an OC!
If you know me you know I love a run-first offense. My formulative years were in the early 90’s and the Dallas Cowboys. Legend has it that Jay Novacek would tell opponents what play was about to happen but then the Cowboys would still run their ass over because they were that good, and then just when you least expect it they would hit you over the top with Michael Irvin or Alvin Harper.
I get stars in my eyes just thinking about it.
So yes, I was pretty excited when Texas decided to run the ball 21 straight times to end the game against Baylor last Friday – Bijan left, Bijan right, Roschon left, Roschon right, here it comes Bears, stop it.
And they couldn’t.
21 straight runs for 133 yards and two touchdowns, and it certainly could have been three there at the end of the game.
It was quite a fitting end to the Texas careers of those two, placing the team on their back when it was looking quite dreary after the Baylor scoop and score, willing their team to victory.
Of course I would be remiss not to mention the offensive line that was helping facilitate that (they had a rough day protecting the passer but I am pretty sure what Christian Jones did to that defender on Roschon’s hurdle touchdown is illegal in 38 states), and the wide receivers have been underrated as a blocking unit all season.
And a defense that held Baylor to 2.6 yards per carry and came up with a timely takeaway.
It was a nice end to a somewhat up and down 2022 season that somehow ended up where everyone expected them to be.
You can’t take it away, of course, and not all was bad about the 2021 season, but how would we all feel if that was Steve Sarkisian’s first season, 8-4 with a shot at the title game after the final whistle?
But as we mentioned a couple of weeks ago, expectations rise next season – 8-4 might look great compared to 5-7, but another 8-4 (or even worse, 7-5) would signal that maybe there is a ceiling here.
First and foremost, the number one goal of the off-season must be to get Quinn Ewers right. You can cover up a lot of faults in college football with a great quarterback. Look at Lincoln Riley’s coaching career. If Quinn is not only able to make the natural progression from a freshman to a sophomore but is also able to tap-in to that one of the greatest recruiting ratings ever well, well the sky is the limit.
He’s going to have to have weapons. There are already rumors that the wide receiver room could look a lot different. The Horns will have to replace Bijan and Roschon, and while Jonathan Brooks and Jaydon Blude and Cedric Baxter look great, you still have to see the product on the field.
Texas graduates a LOT of beef on the defensive line. They lose some experience at linebacker. Experience matters, especially on defense. The defensive backfield will be the strength of the defensive unit next season, but sometimes those guys are only as good as the pass rush in front of them.
And Will Stone had better be doing leg presses even as we speak. Get them in his dorm room or apartment or physics class or car, because we need some kickoffs to go out of the endzone next season.
The coaching staff needs to grow. It has been said that Steve Sarkisian made strides this calendar year as a head coach but fell short as an offensive coordinator. Texas hired the man to score and score and score, and far too often this season they did not score nearly enough. Pete Kwiatkowski made significant progress this season compared to last, but that progress needs to continue.
And finally, we talked about Bijan and Roschon’s production, but some would say they made a greater impact off the field, and that isn’t easily replaced. Jordan Whittington is (perhaps) gone. Coburn. Ojomo. Overshown. Those are some loud voices in that locker room. It is often said that the best teams are player coached, Texas was on their way to that this season, they cannot afford to fall back.
Hit on that, get the quarterback solution fixed, and Ja’Tavion Sanders will be telling the defense what’s coming in Tuscaloosa because they ain’t going to stop it anyways.
AAC Championship: Tulane –3.5 vs. UCF:
I just wrote about this game two weeks ago and I doubt anyone read about it then so I won’t spend much time on it now but Tulane ended Cincinnati’s 32-game home winning streak last weekend and then this weekend they are looking to clinch their first NY6 bowl bid since the 1940 Sugar Bowl. They haven’t had an 8-day stretch in New Orleans like this since, well probably last week.
UCF 28 Tulane 24
ACC Championship: Clemson –7.5 vs. North Carolina:
I don’t know how this snooze fest always gets prime-time while the Big 12 is stuck in the official timeslot of the Big 12 Conference at 11 AM, but soon that won’t be our problem (and actually I guess it hasn’t been since 2009, *rimshot*).
Last week featured losses by both of these teams, with D.J. Uiagalelei throwing out yet another dreadful performance (8-of-29 passing for 99 yards). I heard that in the car last week and had to look it up when I got home because I was just sure that I heard it incorrectly.
It is probably best for D.J. to just transfer so both sides can get a clean start (see you in Dallas, D.J.!)
Meanwhile North Carolina must have known it was getting close to conference title game szn because Mack Brown managed to lose to mediocre Georgia Tech and rival N.C. State in a microcosm of the bad side of his career.
Drake Maye may be the reason that North Carolina was 9-1 and getting whispers about a possible playoff bid but he’s been dreadful in those two losses, barely completing 50% of his passes while tossing only one touchdown to one interception.
The Tar Heels haven’t beaten Clemson since 2010, losing four in a row to them, and I see little reason for that not to continue. North Carolina’s 104th in the country defense (according to SP+) is even bad enough for Uiagelelei to look good.
Clemson 34 North Carolina 27
Pac12 Championship: USC –3 vs Utah:
Meanwhile this feels like something the Big 12 would do, put our title game on Friday and tell us that’s when all the great teams play despite seeing San Diego State and New Mexico State on ESPN4 here a couple weeks back.
Caleb Williams all about wrapped up the Heisman Trophy last weekend with his four-touchdown performance against Notre Dame and C.J. Stroud’s dreadful performance against Michigan, so as long as Williams can manage to not kill his wife and a waiter from her favorite restaurant you have to like his chances of taking home the little fella.
Perhaps most impressive in that game was the much-maligned USC defense holding Notre Dame to 90 yards rushing when the Irish were averaging more than 200 yards per game during their five-game winning streak.
Utah defeated USC earlier this year in Salt Lake City when Cam Rising threw for more than 400 yards, but he hasn’t thrown for more than 234 in a game and has just 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions since then.
In other Texas quarterback transfer news, Ja’Quinden Jackson is now Utah’s feature running back after Tavion Thomas injured his toe in a loss to Oregon two weeks ago. Not only is his season over but his Utah career is over as he waiting about six hours before declaring for the draft.
That Ute offense might have had their issues but the defense has been great, giving up 4.0 yards per play over their last three games. Extrapolated over a whole season that would lead the country.
USC is looking for their first conference title since 2017 and of course have the inside track to a spot in the College Football Playoff – they get the win in this matchup with the Utes.
USC 38 Utah 28
Big 10 Championship: Michigan –16.5 vs. Purdue:
Why does it feel like Purdue won one of those contests on the back of a cereal box and now they get to play Michigan in the Big 10 title game?
The Boilermakers did not, however win a contest – they won their last three to get here. This would be Purdue’s first Big 10 championship since 2000 with Drew Brees, but they won’t have to worry about that.
Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country, and a very ordinary offense that the Boilermakers feature won’t challenge them. Perhaps J.J. McCarthy can’t replicate that performance every week – but he doesn’t have to.
Michigan 34 Purdue 16
SEC Championship: Georgia –17.5 vs. LSU:
I could write about how Georgia hasn’t allowed more than 22 points all season and allowed less than 20 in nine games, or I could talk about how Stetson Bennett has been rather ordinary lately, only throwing 5 touchdown passes to 3 interceptions since the Tennessee game, or I could talk about how Georgia has scored less than 26 points only once this season – but LSU lost to Texas A&M last weekend and Jayden Daniels looked like Yao Ming out there running last week.
Georgia wins rather easily.
Georgia 35 LSU 21
Big 12 Championship: TCU –2.5 vs. Kansas State:
There are several pundits out there that say that TCU is in the CFP even with a loss, but then again you have to suspend your disbelief that the committee can quit Ohio State or Alabama long enough to make that happen, so the Horned Frogs would be better off just winning on taking care of that on their own.
The Frogs became only the second team to go undefeated in league play since the conference adopted this round-robin format in 2011, and while it wasn’t always pretty, you have to hand it to them on that alone, because 9 of the 10 teams couldn’t make it through with less than two losses.
The Horned Frogs are going for their first conference title since they shared it with Baylor in 2014 and they are looking for their first outright major conference title since 1958. Their offense seems to thrive no matter if Quentin Johnston or Kendre Miller or Derius Davis is in it or not and it seems like all of them will be healthy for this one so that’s points for them.
Kansas State lost three games this year – to Tulane, to Texas and to TCU. We all laughed at that Tulane loss earlier this year but they are a win against Central Florida away from playing Alabama in the Cotton Bowl so I guess the joke is on us. That Texas game Will Howard didn’t play...but Adrian Martinez played well and let’s not act like he is chopped liver next to Howard’s prime rib.
Oh that TCU game. Martinez went out early, Howard came in and Kansas State was up 28-10 in the second quarter, but like many TCU deficits this season it did not last. Since then, the Wildcats are 4-0 when Howard starts, averaging more than 42 points per game.
Their defense has been a bit leaky the last two games, giving up 58 points to Kansas and West Virginia, but they were in no danger of losing either game at any time. Both of these teams averaged more than 10 yards per pass attempt in their first matchup – so don’t be surprised to see a shootout.
I’ve watched way too much Big 12 football this season and this TCU team just seems like the best one of the lot. Get your playoff tickets, TCU fans.
TCU 41 Kansas State 34
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for tickets to see your #2 Texas basketball team whip #7 Creighton.