The Week That Will Be: Championship Saturday
For the first time in a while, the Horns will play for a championship.
Last Week: 2-4 ATS 6-0 SU
For the Year: 34-41-3 (.436) (-$1,070) ATS 62-16 (.795) SU
Chalk (Michigan –3.5 vs. Ohio State):
Don’t mess with a streak.
Bad Beat (Oregon State +13.5 @ Oregon & Washington –16.5 vs. Washington State):
The Pac-12 algorithm said that one of these would be close and the other would be a comfortable win and of course I got them switched.
I think Santino was avenged.
We began this year with one theme.
Every second counts.
From the jump this season we talked about attention to detail, that you have to be meticulous and deliberate to take the program to the next level.
“It is what makes the difference between 8-4 and 10-2 or even 11-1".
Last year, the Longhorns were 2-5 in one score games. This year they were 3-1.
We talked about how the Longhorns needed to improve on money downs. They were in the bottom half of the conference last year in third and fourth down conversion defense.
This year they led the COUNTRY in third-down defensive percentage.
We said they need to create more turnovers. The Hons were again in the bottom half of the conference last year.
This year they are 21st in the country in forcing turnovers.
We talked about needing improvement from Quinn Ewers – he was a redshirt freshman last season so growing pains were to be expected, but they needed him to mature quickly this season – and we talked about an offensive line that needed to play up to its accolades.
His completion percentage went up 11 percentage points. His yards per attempt are up a full yard and a half. He managed the game better.
The offensive line paced a rushing attack that had little dropoff from Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson – last year the team rushed for about 2,400 yards at 5.2 yards per carry, this year it was 2,200 yards and 4.9 yards per carry despite fighting injuries all year.
When the Horns were nursing a lead in Tuscaloosa, they drained the final 7 minutes off the clock by lining up and running the football. Against Texas Tech last weekend the second team unit drained the clock in the fourth quarter against the Red Raider starters.
We talked about playing better complimentary football.
The defense held Alabama off until the offense found its footing in Tuscaloosa. The defense made plays when it had to against Houston and Kansas State when the offense was struggling under new direction. The offense came up with the big plays against TCU when the defense was reeling. It didn’t look like a well-oiled machine every week, but for the most part they made the plays they needed to when they needed to.
And finally, the final theme in that opening column – the coaching staff.
The Horns won the battle of the headsets most weeks – Sarkisian coached the pants off of Nick Saban and his defense. He built those big leads against Kansas State and TCU with scheme. And he called what might have been his finest game in Ames.
Regardless of the result on Saturday, regardless of results of other games, Texas is on the right path.
The atmosphere around games, the buzz around the programs, the culture, the coaching staff, the roster construction. It’s SEC ready and therefore national elite echelon ready.
The Longhorns can’t make the playoff on their own Saturday – they’ll need help.
But they can win a championship.
It’s been a long time coming.
AAC Championship: SMU @ Tulane –3.5:
The winner of this game is very likely headed to the Fiesta or Peach Bowl as part of the NY6.
SMU was dealt a huge blow last week in their blowout win over Navy when starting quarterback Preston Stone left the game with an injury and will miss the remainder of the season. Stone had thrown for 3,200 yards and 28 touchdowns this year. His backup is former South Oak Cliff quarterback Kevin Jennings, who was the signal caller when they won the state championship a couple years back, but he’s very green.
The Mustangs were far from a one-man team, however. They’ve won 8 in a row, with their only losses on the season coming to Oklahoma and TCU on the road. They eclipsed the 50-point mark four times this season and the 60-point mark twice. Stone was helped by a running game that features three backs who have combined for 1,580 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. And while SMU’s offense is impressive, their defense has been outstanding, they rank 6th in the country in defensive yards per play and have 40 sacks on the season.
Tulane is 23-3 since the beginning of last season and has won 10 in a row since a loss to Ole Miss back in September. They also boast an impressive defense – none of their last four opponents have scored more than 22 points. Michael Pratt is the starter at quarterback, he’s thrown for 2,168 yards and 21 touchdowns to 4 interceptions while leading a somewhat inconsistent Green Wave offense.
Tulane 28 SMU 24
ACC Championship: Louisville vs. Florida State –2.5:
Louisville has won two of three in this series, with Florida State winning 35-31 last year in Louisville when Jordan Travis was injured and Tate Rodemaker had to lead a comeback win.
If you have been living under a rock, Rodemaker is back in the saddle after and injury to Travis and “led” the Seminoles to their 18th straight victory last Saturday. I put that in quotations, of course, because Rodemaker completed less than 50% of his passes for 134 yards without a score – their entire offense was the legs of Trey Benson, who had has three rushing touchdowns. The 224 total yards for Florida State was a season low.
Louisville had a 6-0 start to the season, had an inexplicable three-score loss to 3-9 Pitt in mid-season and then won four more before falling to Kentucky (again) last weekend. Their 10 wins are the most for the program since Charlie Strong won 12 in 2013.
Their defense slipped late in the season but there was a stretch there where they shut out Duke (whoooop), only allowed 20 points to Notre Dame, 10 points to N.C. State and 3 points to Virginia Tech. They only allowed 4 opponents to rush for 100 yards this season, and held super Kentucky running back Ray Davis to 83 yards last weekend.
Their quarterback is Purdue transfer Jack Plummer, who has thrown for 2,952 yards and 21 touchdowns this season, but who has a tendency to turn the ball over – he's thrown 11 interceptions and has thrown one in three straight games headed into this one.
The weather looks iffy for this one, rain all weekend in the Charlotte area with cold conditions. Jeff Brohm has done this before – in 2018 his Purdue Boilermakers defeated #2 Ohio State and in 2021 they defeated #2 Iowa – he'll do it again.
Louisville 27 Florida State 21
Pac-12 Championship: Oregon –9.5 vs. Washington:
This game is a rematch of a mid-October clash when Washington defeated Oregon in Seattle in a game largely remembered for the fourth-down decisions by Oregon coach Dan Lanning.
Since that game, both teams are undefeated but have taken different paths – the Huskies snuck by Arizona State by 8 (largely due to a Pick Six late in the game), Stanford by 9, USC by 10, Utah by 7, Oregon State by 2 and Washington State by a field goal. Meanwhile, Oregon soundly defeated six opponents in a row by an average margin of victory of 26 points.
And dude...have you seen Bo Nix’s completion percentage? The committee has!
Oregon 31 Washington 28
Big 10 Championship: Iowa vs. Michigan –22.5:
I mean c’mon, what are we doing here, Iowa’s team over/under is less than a point for each half?
Michigan 31 Iowa 10
SEC Championship: Alabama vs. Georgia –5.5:
These teams last met in the conference championship game in 2021 – Alabama won 41-24 but when they met weeks later in the national championship game, Georgia prevailed 33-18.
I think this game comes down to one thing – which green quarterback performs the best.
Carson Beck has been better than expected replaced 13-year veteran Stetson Bennett, but he hasn’t had that game under the lights yet – how will he react? Jalen Milroe had a rough start to the season, was even benched for a game, but since then has been great, most recently throwing for 259 yards and rushing for 107 and accounting for two touchdowns (including the 4th and 31 game-winner) against Auburn last week. He’s accounted for 17 touchdowns and just two turnovers in his last five games.
To get their 30th consecutive victory, the Bulldogs are going to have to shore up their rush defense, which gave up 205 yards to Georgia Tech and ranks outside the Top-45 in rushing yards per attempt after finishing in the Top-3 the last three seasons.
I think Georgia wins, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the upset.
Georgia 34 Alabama 30
Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma State vs. Texas –14.5:
Not many had this Big 12 title game matchup on their pre-season Bingo card. Texas was certainly picked by many to be here, but Oklahoma State was not, they were picked to finish 7th in the pre-season media poll.
And most sure did not have this matchup a month into the season, after the Cowboys started 2-2 with an embarrassing blowout loss to South Alabama in Stillwater. But they won 7 of 8 to get to their second Big 12 Championship game in three seasons. It’s Gundy’s finest job yet.
Apparently, it was Big 12 coach of the year worthy.
Gundy has always been a Texas-killer, he’s 9-4 against Texas since the last time the Longhorns won the Big 12 (to be fair he’s killed a lot of Big 12 teams, he’s made a bowl game every year since his second year, 2006).
But this is not a good matchup for them.
The Cowboys started the year rotating three (!!!) quarterbacks, but finally decided on former Michigan Wolverine (and Texas Tech Red Raider) Alan Bowman, who has shown some flashes this year but has mostly been...not good. Bowman has thrown for 2,808 yards but has more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (10). He’s been particularly awful lately, throwing 6 interceptions to 2 touchdowns since their win over Oklahoma and has thrown a pick-six in two straight games entering this one.
Luckily for the Cowboys they have a cheat code named Ollie Gordon, who has rushed for 1,580 yards despite not playing much the first few games. The true sophomore has hit some milestones not touched in Stillwater since Barry Sanders was there (including 5 rushing touchdowns last week in their win over BYU), which is obviously high praise. If Gordon has a flaw, it is his ability to protect the football, he has three fumbles in his last five games.
Of course, the Longhorns have their own cheat code named T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy.
Defensively, the Cowboys have some issues. They have allowed 200 yards or more to five opponents this season, including 293 yards to Central Florida in their blowout loss earlier this month. They rank 109th in the country in defensive yards per play, 91st in defensive rushing yards per attempt, 124th in the country in defensive yards per pass attempt and 92nd in the country in defensive sack percentage.
Prevent the big play from Ollie Gordon, rewind the Texas Tech defensive gameplan against them and simply be patient on offense, and the Longhorns will be conference champions for the first time since 2009.
And perhaps much more than that.
Texas 37 Oklahoma State 20
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for Pasadena or New Orleans for New Year’s.
I think Gundy is a heckuva coach, and I also think Ollie Gordon is a terrific player, but Big 12 Coach of the Year and Big 12 Player of the Year? It speaks volumes about the pettiness of the Hateful 8 that Sark and Sweat didn’t win the honors this season.
The Big 12 jokes write themselves, and the sooner Texas puts this loser of a conference in the rear view mirror, the better.
Last week’s beatdown of Texas Tech was edifying. I think the Longhorns have played their most complete (but still not perfect) games over the past two weeks, and I hope that means they’ve hit their stride. I can’t wait for Saturday!