The Week That Will Be: A New Hope
The loss hurts, but all goals are still in play for the Longhorns
Last Week: 2-4 ATS 3-3 SU
For the Year: 14-21-1 (.389) (-$850) ATS 25-11 (.694) SU
Chalk (Alabama –1.5 @ Texas A&M):
Despite being sacked 6 times and 9 false starts by the Alabama offensive line, the Aggies managed to make it yet another week where everyone in the stadium is talking about Jimbo’s contract and not his very solid football team.
Bad Beat (Kansas State –10.5 @ Oklahoma):
Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon had 136 rushing yards, but that is a bad loss for a Kansas State team that had designs on defending their Big 12 title crown.
“You Can Hold It”
“Business Up Front, Potty in the Back”
“Restrooms So Clean, We Leave Mints in the Urinal”
On the drive up to Dallas last Friday me and my buddy Drew played a game – which would have a higher count – the number of Buc-ees billboards on the drive up, or Texas points the following day?
The number of billboards?
33.
If only Texas had scored one more point than that.
But alas.
Thirty points should still have been enough to beat this Oklahoma team. But it wasn’t.
First, kudos to Oklahoma, it was evident from the opening kickoff that they were there to avenge the embarrassment of a year ago. I wasn’t sure that they had the stomach for the fight, but they had that and more.
For the 23rd time in its storied history, both teams were ranked, and the game was decided by eight points or fewer. That ties Michigan/Ohio State for the most ever.
For me, we can talk about Dillon Gabriel (he was great), the play-calling from Steve Sarkisian (can we lose the slow developing sideways plays in the red zone), we can waste time talking about the officials (81 plays from Oklahoma and zero holds, impressive), the “prevent” defense, but this game was lost in the trenches, where Texas was supposed to have a massive advantage.
That was disappointing. And disheartening.
Zero sacks of Gabriel. The official box score says one but that wasn’t a traditional sack.
Four tackles for loss. Oklahoma had eight. Oklahoma had five sacks of Quinn Ewers.
One quarterback hit. Oklahoma hit Ewers five times.
The Sooners offensive line let Oklahoma go 6-of-6 in the red zone.
Texas went 1-of-3.
And we all remember, and will remember, one of those red zone failures.
It is cliché, because this is football after all, but this game is usually won by the more physical team. And on Saturday that was Oklahoma.
The Sooners looked better prepared. They looked more ready for the fight. Texas looked like they had already won the fight.
Texas didn’t give them their best shot, but still had a chance to win the ballgame at the end. They didn’t attack nearly enough and got bitten at the end.
But put down the cup of Clorox, Texas fans, because not all hope is lost.
There isn’t a ranked opponent left on the schedule. They only play two games against teams with a winning record at present, and those are both at home. They’ll probably be double-digit favorites in all six remaining games. I know what you are thinking, you’re remembering recent teams and their failures in games they were favored in. But we talked about this last week, this team is good. Great, even.
Job’s not finished. The Lakers lost the game after that famous Kobe quote, too. But then they came back and won the title.
Win out and Oklahoma might be waiting there in Arlington for them. The way the rest of the conference is playing right now it is hard to imagine it being anyone else.
And if that is the case, Buc-ee's better buy some more billboards, because a reckoning will be in order.
BYU @ TCU –6:
TCU enters this one at 3-3 after two straight losses. Even worse, they have lost starting quarterback Chandler Morris for 4-6 weeks due to a knee injury. He’ll be replaced by freshman Josh Hoover, who fumbled the first time he touched the ball last Saturday and threw an interception on his second attempt. It can only go up from here.
Something must give here – the TCU defense gave up 215 yards rushing against Iowa State last weekend and 200 to West Virginia the week before while BYU is 129th out of 130 FBS teams in rushing yards per game at just 62.8 per game.
TCU 24 BYU 21
Texas A&M @ Tennessee –3.5:
Tennessee has won two in a row since that terrible loss to Florida. They’ve done it by simply running over the other teams, rushing for 548 yards in those two wins. They now face a Texas A&M squad that held Alabama to 23 rushing yards and corralled Auburn and Arkansas before that – in fact the Aggies are 5th in the country in rushing yards given up per attempt at just 2.6 yards per attempt.
Conversely you can beat the Aggies through the air – therefore they are trying to counteract that by blitzing the hell out of an opponent, they blitzed Jalen Milroe 70% of the time last week according to PFF...he still threw for 321 yards.
Can Joe Milton take the team on his back and win a game like that?
Tennessee 28 Texas A&M 21
Kansas State @ Texas Tech –1.5:
It seems like the wrong team is favored here, but look at my record, what do I know?
Texas Tech hasn’t defeated the Wildcats in their last 7 tries and have lost 11-of-12...probably because their style runs counter to what the Red Raiders want to run...or at least used to want to run, Tech running back Tahj Brooks has rushed for 100 yards in his last four ballgames, including 170 last week against Baylor. He’s fifth in the FBS in rushing. What is happening here?
Kansas State 34 Texas Tech 30
Miami @ North Carolina –3.5:
North Carolina has won 4 in a row in this series, with Miami’s last win in Chapel Hill coming in 2017. Three of those games were decided by three points.
Every preview of a North Carolina game must start and end with quarterback Drake Maye – he had 442 passing yards and 3 touchdowns, his third career 400-yard game.
The Tar Heels are 5-0 for the first time since 1997 but the Hurricanes will be the first ranked opponent that they have faced. You always have to account for the Mack Brown pucker factor but this is one the Tar Heels should win, even if Miami doesn’t hand it to them.
North Carolina 38 Miami 28
USC @ Notre Dame –2.5:
My favorite rhetoric every year is that Lincoln Riley still doesn’t have a defense, and then we blame Alex Grinch and wax on if only he had Bill Parcells as DC...
Repeat after me, kids...Lincoln Riley’s teams don’t have defense because Lincoln Riley as a head coach doesn’t give a damn about defense and his style will never have a decent defense.
Of course, last week USC didn’t just have their defense to worry about, it was their offense as well. I was drinking in my sorrows all day but had to tilt my head when I saw that Arizona was up 17-0 on USC and that Caleb Williams only had 11 completed passes before the overtime period – USC eventually pulled away, of course, but you still have to be concerned about a team that have a one score win over an unranked team, an overtime win over an unranked team and four wins over programs with a combined record of 3-19. Fret not, however, as five of the last six opponents are currently ranked.
Of course, the Trojans could sleepwalk through this one too and outscore a Notre Dame offense haven’t scored more than 21 points in three straight weeks. Sam Hartman had three interceptions last week – that offense isn’t good enough to overcome that.
Notre Dame 30 USC 24
Oregon @ Washington –3:
This will be one of the better matchups of the country, the first ever meeting between these two schools with both ranked inside the Top-10, and the first matchup in the Pac-12 of teams 5-0 or better since USC defeated Arizona State in 2004.
The highlight of this matchup is the quarterback matchup, in that the winner of this game might very well be the Heisman Trophy favorite come Sunday morning. Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix lived up to the hype last week when they combined for nearly 800 yards of total offense in a 37-34 Washington win.
Penix has thrown for at least 300 yards in every game this season and has eclipsed the 400-yard mark three times – he has 35 completions of 20 yards or more and 19 of 30 or more. Literal video game numbers.
Meanwhile Oregon is starting a stretch of three of four games against ranked opponents. Nix has thrown for 1,459 yards this season and thrown 15 touchdown passes to only one interception.
Texas Tech is the only team to score more than 10 points against the Ducks all season – are they playing great defense or just facing a run of bad offense?
We’ll certainly find out this weekend.
Oregon 38 Washington 28
BONUS PICK: Texas Rangers + 120 over Houston Astros in six games – Let's go Rangers!!!
For entertainment purposes only. Save your money for World Series tickets.